The ATP Madrid draw remains wide open at the semifinal stage. Two-time French Open runner-up Casper Ruud will face Francisco Cerundolo, while Jack Draper is set to battle Lorenzo Musetti. Both matches are predicted in this article, but which two men do you think will reach the final?
ATP Madrid Semifinal Predictions
Casper Ruud vs Francisco Cerundolo
Head-to-head: Cerundolo 5-3 Ruud
Both men have been very impressive so far. Ruud did not drop a set in victories against Arthur Rinderknech, Sebastian Korda, Taylor Fritz, and Daniil Medvedev. Cerundolo progressed in straight sets against Harold Mayot, Francisco Comesana, and Alexander Zverev before needing a third set to triumph over the Miami Open champion Jakub Mensik in the quarterfinal.
This has not been an easy matchup for Ruud. He trails in the overall head-to-head and is 2-2 on clay. There will also be pressure on the Norwegian since it is a golden opportunity for him to win a maiden Masters 1000 title on his best surface. Cerundolo and Ruud possess two of the best clay-court forehands in the sport, and who wins that battle will likely reach the final. Despite the Argentine’s good record against Ruud, he needed a significant effort to overcome Draper, and those excursions might give the 14th seed a slight edge.
Prediction: Ruud in 3
Jack Draper vs Lorenzo Musetti
Head-to-head: Draper 3-0 Musetti
Draper had the least strenuous route to the semifinal of the four players. He easily beat Tallon Griekspoor, Tommy Paul, and Matteo Arnaldi, and benefited from Matteo Berrettini retiring after the first set in the round of 32. Musetti worked slightly harder but still did not drop a set against Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alex de Minaur, and Gabriel Diallo.
Draper’s previous wins against Musetti were in straight sets, although they were all on indoor hard courts. The Italian’s overall record on clay is far superior to Draper’s. However, the Briton’s left-handed forehand into Musetti’s one-handed backhand, the biggest reason for the Monte-Carlo Masters’ runner-up’s struggles against Draper, could work very effectively in the fast and bouncy conditions in Madrid.
Nonetheless, Musetti is still narrowly favored due to his greater comfort on clay. It’s the only surface where Musetti’s movement is superior to Draper’s, which could prove crucial.
Prediction: Musetti in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
