Here are my best bets for the third round of the WTA Madrid Open. My feature match is Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Darya Kasatkina. Do you think I was on the mark with my bets? Let me know in the comments below if you think I chose well.
WTA Madrid Open
Alexandrova – Kasatkina: Time 11:00
H2H: 2-3
Ekaterina Alexandrova and Darya Kasatkina have exchanged wins and losses since 2019. Kasatkina won the first, third, and fifth matches, Alexandrova the second and fourth. Only two of their five matches have gone three sets, but their matches are almost always competitive. Alexandrova seems to be better with indoor matches, while Kasatkina has done well on hardcourts and grass. Alexandrova is currently riding a two-tournament streak of at least making the semifinals, and is only two matches away from making it three.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Alexandrova as the favorite, and it’s easy to see why. She’s been performing extremely well lately. As mentioned, she’s hit two semifinals in a row. Even as the higher-ranked player, Kasatkina isn’t playing with a lot of confidence right now. Fortunately, there’s money to be made on both players. The best value I see is picking Alexandrova two sets to one at 4.4 on Interwetten. I think Kasatkina is going to put up a strong fight since she’s playing on a surface she knows well, but she’ll fall short in three.
That being said, Alexandrova winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alexandrova 2:1 @4.4 @Interwetten
Masarova – Stearns: Time 11:00
H2H: 0-1
Rebeka Masarova vs Peyton Stearns is one of the more lopsided matches on the card regarding the world ranking of each competitor. While they’ve only met once before, Stearns was at a much different place in terms of her play. She’d come off a tournament victory in Rome and made the quarterfinals in Austin before her first-round matchup with Masarova in 2023. This time around, Masarova, who is 8-2 heading into the matchup, is in better form.
Best Bet to Make
The books don’t seem to care that Masarova is playing well as of late; they still have Stearns as the favorite. Every match she’s played has gone three sets, and even the third sets were undecided until the end. She isn’t exactly playing with the type of confidence you’d want to see from someone who was 3-5 in the eight games before the WTA Madrid Open. At 2.4, Masarova has to look like a decent value for an underdog playing like she is entering the match.
That being said, Masarova winning under is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Masarova winning @2.40 @Unibet
Kudermetova – Kostyuk: Time 11:00
H2H: 2-0
Veronika Kudermetova and Marta Kostyuk have met twice before, and Kudermetova won both matches. The vast majority of their sets have been extremely competitive. There’s no reason to believe this match shouldn’t play out similarly to the others. Both ladies are 6-4 in their last ten matches, but Kosyuk is easily the weaker of the two on clay. Kostyuk has never won a clay court title and is 74-36. Kudermetova has won a title on clay and is 95-68 on the surface.
Best Bet to Make
The books have this as a push for damn good reasons. When all your matches have been bangers, people will expect a hard-fought contest that goes down to the very last point. Kudermetova’s win-rate on clay is enough to make me think she’s going to be much more equipped to handle the pressure as it mounts.
That being said, Kudermetova at 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Kudermetova at 2:0 @3.25 @Bet365
Main Photo Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports
