ATP Masters 1000 Madrid 1/16-Finals
Bublik – Rublev: 27.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 3-5
Alexander Bublik has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Munich, Bublik lost in the opening round against Bergs in three tight sets. This week in Madrid, Bublik won both matches in straight sets without bigger problems. Last season in Madrid, Bublik lost in the fourth round against Medvedev in straight sets. He has never made it past the quarterfinals.
Andrey Rublev has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Barcelona, Rublev lost against Davidovich Fokina in the 1/8-Finals. He is the defending champion in Madrid. In the opening round, Monfils retired against Rublev. Last season, Rublev defeated Auger-Aliassime in the final.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Bublik is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. The Kazakh enjoys playing in Madrid and has served and played well in the opening two matches. We expect him to hold his service games easily and keep this match tight.
That being said, Bublik covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alexander Bublik +3.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Cerundolo – Comesana: 27.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: 2-0
Francisco Cerundolo has won four of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, the Argentine easily won the opening-round match against Mayot in straight sets.
Francisco Comesana has won four of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, Comesana defeated Martinez in straight sets in the opening round and then upset Fils in the second round in straight sets. Last season in Madrid, the Argentine failed to qualify for the main draw tournament.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Cerundolo is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Last season in Hamburg, Cerundolo defeated Comesana in straight sets, and we expect a similar outcome tomorrow. His experience will prevail in this match.
That being said, Cerundolo winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Francisco Cerundolo winning 2-0 @1.83 @bet365
Fritz – Bonzi: 27.04.2025 Time TBA
H2H: first meeting
Taylor Fritz has won four of his last five matches. His last match before the ATP Masters in Madrid was in Miami, where Mensik upset him in the semifinals. Fritz defeated O’Connell in the opening round in straight sets this week in Madrid. Last season in Madrid, Fritz lost against Rublev in the semifinals.
Benjamin Bonzi has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Barcelona, Bonzi failed to qualify for the main draw tournament. This week in Madrid, the Frenchman defeated Cilic in straight sets in the opening round. He then defeated Hurkacz in straight sets in the second round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Fritz is the big favourite in this matchup, but we disagree. Bonzi is in great form and has defeated two tough opponents in straight sets. We believe he will be competitive and keep this match tight.
That being said, Bonzi covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Benjamin Bonzi +4.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
