ATP Masters 1000 Madrid 1/64-Finals
Borges – Carreno-Busta: Time TBA
H2H: first meeting
Nuno Borges has won three of his last five matches. His last match was in Monte Carlo, where he lost to Tsitsipas in the 1/8-Finals. Last season in Madrid, Borges lost against Munar in the opening round in straight sets.
Pablo Carreno-Busta has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Barcelona, He lost in straight sets against Fils in the opening round. His last appearance in Madrid was in 2022 when he lost in the opening round against Van de Zandschulp.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Carreno-Busta is the slight underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. The Spaniard will have a packed crowd on his side and is a solid clay-court player. Borgest played far away from his best level in Monte Carlo. We expect Carreno-Busta to be a better player and win.
That being said, Carreno-Busta winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Pablo Carreno-Busta winning @2.20 @bet365
Carballes Baena – Thompson: Time TBA
H2H: 0-1
Roberto Carballes Baena has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Barcelona, Carballes Baena lost in the opening round against a lucky loser, Jacob Fearnley. Last season in Madrid, the Spaniard lost in the second round against Bublik.
Jordan Thompson has lost three of his last five matches. His last match was in Monte Carlo, where he lost against Tsitsipas in the second round. This is the Australian’s least favourite part of the season, as he has never succeeded on clay courts. Last season in Madrid, Kotov upset Thompson in the second round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Carballes Baena is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is a solid clay-court player and will have a crowd on his side. Thompson enjoys playing on fast courts, but he never succeeded on clay. Carballes Baena will be a better player and win.
That being said, Carballes Baena winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Roberto Carballes Baena winning @1.67 @bet365
Dzumhur – Bellucci: Time TBA
H2H: 0-1
Damir Dzumhur has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Barcelona, Dzumhur lost in the opening round against Baez in straight sets. This will be his third appearance in Madrid. He has never made it past the second round.
Mattia Bellucci has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Barcelona, Bellucci failed to qualify for the main draw tournament. Around this time last season, Bellucci played on clay at the Challenger tour level.
Best Bet to Make
The bookies say this will be an almost 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Dzumhur has played more clay-court matches this season and has had solid success on clay as well. We expect him to be better prepared for this match and win.
That being said, Dzumhur winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Damir Dzumhur winning @1.73 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
