ATP Munich Round of 32 has fairly straightforward match-ups. The featured match is Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone. Do you think my bet selections were wise? Do you agree? Let me know in the comments.
ATP Munich Round of 32
Navone – Auger-Aliassime: Time 15:30
H2H: 0-0
Mariano Navone and Felix Auger-Aliassime have never met before Munich. While neither man has been playing well as of late, Navone enters the match having won three of his last five, while Auger-Aliassime is 1-4 in his last five, though one of those losses was in the final at Dubai. Navone is 10-11 in ’25 while Auger-Aliassime is 75-8.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Auger-Aliassime winning, and I agree. Perhaps most importantly, you can make money off Auger-Aliassime even though he’s the favorite. The books have him at 1.71 to Navone’s 2.3, which means you would take home $171 if you bet $100 on Auger-Aliassime. Navone would bring you $230. You make $50 less and don’t have to deal with the hassle of betting on the underdog. Should you feel super froggy, Navone is a stellar 234-120 on clay, and Auger-Aliassime is 123-66.
That being said, Auger-Aliassime winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Auger-Aliassime winning @1.71 @Betfair
Shapovalov – Dedura-Palomero: Time 14:00
H2H: 0-0
Diego Dedura-Palomero and Denis Shapovalov have never played before Munich, but their world rankings have them worlds apart. Shapovalov checks in at no. 29 while Dedura-Palomero is no. 549 in the world. Dedura-Palomero is having a 2025 reflective of his ranking at 8-10, but Shapovalov is 12-7, and two of those losses are to Top 5 opponents. There’s a reason that Shapovalov is a heavy favorite.
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Best Bet to Make
The books have Shapovalov winning as a heavy favorite, and I agree. I also want to encourage degeneracy, so if you’re absolutely certain that Dedura-Palomero is going to pull off the upset, Pinnacle is where you want to place your action. He’s going for 6.71 on Pinnacle, and it isn’t going to get any better than that. Just a $200 bet would bring you home over $1,300. You’d best be sure of the upset or have the money to spend.
That being said, Dedura-Palomero winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Dedura-Palomero winning @6.71 @Pinnacle
Bergs – Bublik: Time 14:00
H2H: 0-0
Zizou Bergs and Alexander Bublik have also never played before, meaning I’m covering three such matches in one column. Bergs has had an impressive 2025 at 17-9 overall. Alexander Bublik hasn’t had nearly as impressive a year; he’s 9-11, but he is 7-3 in his last ten matches. That said, the majority of those wins came at the Phoenix Challenger. Taking out Bergs would be a much more significant win than any he’s had recently.
Best Bet to Make
The books see Bublik as an underdog, but I’m genuinely not sure. Bergs lost his only match on clay in 2025, and Bublik is 2-1. That’s only 2025. Once you look closer, you find out Bublik is 65-63 on clay overall, and Bergs is 135-81. There are quality odds on Bublik should you go that route, but you can also make some modest change betting on Bergs at 1.62.
That being said, Bergs to win is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Bergs winning @1.62 @1xBet
Main Photo Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports
