ATP Masters 1000 Miami quarterfinals
Fils – Mensik: 27.03.2025 18:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0
Arthur Fils has won four of his last five matches. Fils upset Tiafoe in the third round this week in Miami, winning in three tight sets. He served great, hitting 21 aces. In the 1/8-Finals, Fils upset Zverev in three tight sets. In his debut campaign last season, Fils lost in the opening round against Arnaldi.
Jakub Mensik has won four of his last five matches. This week in Miami, Mensik upset Draper in the second round. In the third round, Safiullin had no answer for Mensik’s game. The Czech won in straight sets, not offering any breakpoints. Machac retired from his 1/8-Final match against Mensik.
Best Bets to Make
Main Bet
According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Fils has played two great matches against Tiafoe and Fils. However, he already had a medical timeout against Zverev and spent much time on the court in those matches. On the other hand, Mensik played three days ago and will be more rested for this matchup.
That being said, Mensik winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Jakub Mensik winning @1.91 @bet365
Second Bet
Mensik is a heavy server and usually offers only a few breakpoints. In his last match against Safiullin, Mensik offered no breakpoints. On the other hand, both Zverev and Tiafoe broke Fils’ serve first in the match. We expect a similar outcome tonight as well.
That being said, Mensik breaking first is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Service break number 1 Jakub Mensik @-120 @FanDuel
Fritz – Berrettini: 28.03.2025 00:00 CEST
H2H: 4-0
Taylor Fritz has won four of his last five matches. He won all three matches this week in Miami in straight sets. In the third round, Fritz defeated Shapovalov in just over an hour. Fritz was the quarterfinalist in Miami in 2023. In the 1/8-Finals, Fritz defeated Walton in straight sets. Last season, Seyboth Wild upset him in the second round.
Matteo Berrettini has won four of his last five matches. This week in Miami, Berrettini struggled in the opening round against Gaston. He then won his third and fourth-round matches against Bergs and de Minaur in straight sets. In the 1/8-Finals, he saved six set points against de Minaur. Last season in Miami, he lost against Murray in the opening round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Berrettini is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He is playing well this week in Miami. In his 1/8-Final match against de Minaur, Berrettini was great under pressure. We expect him to keep this match tight. On the other hand, Fritz was also dominant this week, but he had a favorable draw.
That being said, Berrettini covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Matteo Berrettini +2.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
