It promises to be a blockbuster WTA Miami semifinal day. World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will face Wimbledon semifinalist Jasmine Paolini in the first semifinal before Alexandra Eala seeks to continue her remarkable run against Jessica Pegula. We at LWOT predict the outcome of both matches, but which players do you think will reach the final?
WTA Miami Semifinal Predictions
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini
Head-to-head: Sabalenka 3-2 Paolini
Sabalenka did not drop a set in victories against Viktoriya Tomova Elena-Gabriela Ruse, Danielle Collins, and Qinwen Zheng. The Belarusian struggled on serve against Zheng, but won 83% of points on second serve return. Paolini overcame Rebecca Sramkova, Ons Jabeur, Naomi Osaka, and Magda Linette to reach the semifinal.
How much damage Sabalenka does on second serve return will also be a pivotal part of this matchup. It is the weakest part of Paolini’s game, and Naomi Osaka’s surprising caution with that shot was a crucial difference during a tight battle with the Italian. Sabalenka might be somewhat wary after losing twice against Paolini. However, she has won their last two meetings, and a medium-speed hard court suits the world No. 1 more in this matchup. Sabalenka’s aggressive returns and powerful hitting to triumph in two competitive sets.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala
Head-to-head: First meeting
Eala’s run to the semifinal has been among the most unexpected seen in recent years. The world No. 140, in the tournament as a wild card, defeated 2017 French Open champion Jelena Ostapenko, this year’s Australian Open winner Madison Keys, and former world No. 1 Iga Swiatek to reach the semifinal. Pegula beat Bernarda Pera, Anna Kalinskaya, and Marta Kostyuk before winning an exceptional quarterfinal against Emma Raducanu. The quality of that match was probably the best on the women’s side in the tournament so far.
Eala’s return has been exceptional, breaking an incredible 25 times in four main draw matches(she received a walkover from Paula Badosa in the round of 16). Although Pegula is not known as a big server, she has been exceptional in that area. The 31-year-old has only been broken four times during the tournament, with her one-two punch being formidable. The 2024 US Open runner-up’s first serve firing again could be crucial in this matchup.
It is impossible to rule out Eala’s chances after the players she has beaten. But Pegula’s level is so steady and built well for avoiding upsets. The American’s terrific backhand is also well-suited to handling Eala’s left-handed forehand, which has been another weapon throughout her memorable run in Miami.
Prediction: Pegula in 2
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
