The expectation at the start of the ATP Qatar Open in Doha was that Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz would remain in contention for the title by this stage. That won’t be the case. Djokovic was knocked out in his opening match against big-hitting Matteo Berrettini, thereby extinguishing any hopes of a top-three seed showdown this weekend. It is up to Alcaraz to ensure he doesn’t suffer a similar fate when he plays Jiri Lehecka in the quarterfinals. Who do you think will advance?
ATP Doha Quarterfinal Predictions
Andrey Rublev vs Alex de Minaur
Head-to-head: Rublev 3-4 de Minaur
Whether Andrey Rublev can stay in the top 10 after this tournament could depend on the outcome of this match. Rublev was a menace in ATP 500 tournaments until he began losing very frequently before the final. It’s undeniable that the Russian has the power to overwhelm any opponent on his day. And it looks like his season is back on track after making back-to-back quarterfinals, but these are the kind of matches that Rublev has struggled to impose himself in recent months. de Minaur has played near-flawless tennis all season. If this ends up being a scrappy affair (almost always in their head-to-head), the Australian will have the edge.
Prediction: de Minaur in 3
Daniil Medvedev vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
Head-to-head: Medvedev 7-1 Auger-Aliassime
Auger-Aliassime notched his first-ever win over Daniil Medvedev in eight tries at the 2024 Paris Olympics. The surface significantly helped his cause. That was their first meeting outside a hard court. The Canadian is an elite ball striker and couldn’t have asked for a timely walkover after a hard-fought win against Quentin Halys. While Medvedev has enjoyed this matchup, he’s never been this vulnerable in a long time. He was on the cusp of a fourth defeat in eight matches in his opener in Doha (trailed Khachanov by a set). A vintage performance in the second round against Zizou Bergs does little to change things. His unshakable baseline consistency has worn off and opponents are sensing this.
Prediction: Auger-Aliassime in 3
Jack Draper vs Matteo Berrettini
Head-to-head: Draper 1-0 Berrettini
Jack Draper had a losing record against Christopher O’Connell (0-2) but demolished the Australian qualifier in their third meeting in just under an hour. He dropped three games in a one-sided match. Questions about Draper’s hip injury can be put to bed now that he’s bagged two wins without showing any physical concerns. This is the stage where the level of competition hots up. Djokovic was projected to reach the quarterfinal. Instead, his conqueror Matteo Berrettini backed up his stunning opening win by taking down the dangerous Tallon Griekspoor. The Italian shares some similarities to Draper in how they command the baseline with big serves and heavy groundstrokes, limiting any extended rallies. Not even a futurist can predict the result of this match with so much confidence, but we’ll likely get three sets.
Prediction: Berrettini in 3
Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka
Head-to-head: Alcaraz 1-0 Lehecka
Carlos Alcaraz was in complete control of his second-round match against Luca Nardi. The Spaniard led 6-1 4-1 but squandered the opportunity to close it in straight sets. Instead, Nardi found a second wind and won five games in a row to force a third set. Alcaraz, to his credit, regained his footing and produced some sumptuous winners to secure a decisive break in the decider. Jiri Lehecka, meanwhile, is yet to drop a set in two matches this week. The Czech has accounted for wins over Grigor Dimitrov and Fabian Marozsan. He was a semifinalist at this tournament two years ago when he was still a novice on tour. Now, he’s acquired plenty of experience and will be a litmus test of Alcaraz’s title credentials. Any dips in focus and Lehecka could turn this into another tense match for the top seed.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
