It’s quarterfinal day at the ATP Dallas Open. The tournament delivered three massive upsets on Thursday with the exits of Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe, and the top seed Taylor Fritz. Defending champion Tommy Paul survived, but for how long as he prepares to face the fit-again Reilly Opelka. Who will reach the semifinals?
ATP Dallas Quarterfinal Predictions
Jaume Munar vs Matteo Arnaldi
Head-to-head: Munar 2-2 Arnaldi
Jaume Munar’s first ATP indoors quarterfinal was not what many tennis fans forecasted before the tournament. The Spaniard is having a quietly good season by his standards. He reached a maiden hard-court semifinal in Hong Kong last month and stretched Casper Ruud to five sets in the first round of the Australian Open. This week, he’s won two matches in straight sets, including an odds-defying round of 16 upset of Ben Shelton.
Matteo Arnaldi has also impressed in Dallas. He knocked out the big-serving Christopher Eubanks in the first round and then beat Davidovich Fokina for the loss of four games. It’s a rare opportunity for either of these two players to headline an ATP 500 semifinal. The prospect of three sets looks increasingly likely, with the attack-minded Arnaldi being the slight favorite to squeeze through.
Prediction: Arnaldi in 3
Casper Ruud vs Yoshihito Nishioka
Head-to-head: Ruud 2-1 Nishioka
For the last few years, Casper Ruud has gone against the norm and regularly competed outside his beloved clay courts in February. That decision almost yielded a title last season in Los Cabos. He produced a vintage performance in the second round against Michael Mmoh to reach the quarterfinals on his Dallas debut. He’ll be wary of the challenge that Yoshihito Nishioka will pose.
The Japanese lefty has eliminated Brandon Nakashima and Frances Tiafoe to reach his first quarterfinal in Dallas on his third try. Nishioka’s sharp and decisive counterpunching is a menace, especially since the new venue plays a little slower. But these are also ideal conditions for Ruud, whose heavier artillery will allow him to dictate play.
Prediction: Ruud in 2
Denis Shapovalov vs Tomas Machac
Head-to-head: first meeting
Denis Shapovalov shocked the tournament favorite Taylor Fritz in the last round to extend his outstanding record on indoor hard courts. The Canadian has now tallied 15 wins from 20 matches under the roof since the start of last season. This winning spree landed him a second ATP title in Belgrade at the end of last year, and he’ll be a handful for the remainder of the tournament if he plays like he did against the top seed.
Tomas Machac is having a great start to the year, with just two defeats from nine completed matches. Both players can take the sting out of the ball. Machac is the more athletically gifted player, but his physical conditioning is not durable, and he has had five documented retirements this past year. He’ll also be up against Shapovalov’s seemingly irresistible form indoors.
Prediction: Shapovalov in 3
Tommy Paul vs Reilly Opelka
Head-to-head: Opelka 1-0 Paul
It’s a clash of former and defending champions in Dallas as Tommy Paul and Reilly Opelka meet in their first-ever ATP meeting. Opelka defeated Paul in three sets at the 2018 Champaign Challenger, but that’s not something to rely on as a barometer for this match. Paul’s title defense has come under serious threat this week, losing sets to Jenson Brooksby and Ethan Quinn.
Opelka has faced much stiffer competition and navigated his way past Alexander Shevchenko and Cameron Norrie to reach the last eight. The player who holds their nerve at crunch time will win this match. And with Opelka winning nine out of 10 tie-breaks this season (including two this week), he’ll fancy his humongous serve to shine.
Prediction: Opelka in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – USA TODAY Sports
