Tuesday at the Australian Open will see an incredible slate of women’s quarterfinal matches, and we here at LastWordOnTennis are ready to share our thoughts on both battles with you. Will Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka meet for another intense showdown? Or will an upset along the way prevent that? Predicting these matches are Jordan Reynolds, Damian Kust, Ateet Shrivastava, Yesh Ginsburg, and Jim Smith. Who do you think will move on?
Australian Open Women’s Quarterfinal Predictions
Aryna Sabalenka vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Jordan:
Both women have a similar style. Pavlyuchenkova is not at the top like Sabalenka because she doesn’t implement her powerful hitting as consistently. The 2021 French Open runner-up has been impressive so far, but Sabalenka should be able to match her hitting while also being better in defense.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
Damian:
Pavlyuchenkova used to play Sabalenka quite close, but it feels redundant to look at matches that were played a few years back in this case. The World No. 1 has a few similar matchups against power-hitters where she used to struggle. But at this stage of her career, it’s kind of like she’s just a much younger and dynamic version of Pavlyuchenkova’s game. The Russian loves making these somewhat random Grand Slam runs and they usually end at the quarterfinal stage (already her fourth in Australia).
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
Ateet:
Sabalenka played her best match so far at the Australian Open to easily defeat Mirra Andreeva in straight sets. The world No.1 was at her dominant best and in this form, I can’t see her losing to Pavlyuchenkova, who has been impressive but has never been past the quarterfinal stage at the Australian Open. Pavlyuchenkova has a winning record against Sabalenka but those wins came when Sabalenka was not the player she is now. I expect a fight from the Russian player but can’t see her beating the tournament favourite.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
Yesh:
I am a bit nervous that Sabalenka’s domination of Mirra Andreeva could be creating a bit of overconfidence. The Belarussian has always excelled in that matchup, and she can just overpower everything Andreeva does. The same will not happen against Pavlyuchenkova. The older Russian always has an effect plan b (or c), and will keep things far closer. Close enough that things can flip if Sabalenka gets tight, which she won’t.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
Jim:
Aryna Sabalenka took a while to hit top gear in Melbourne, but she has been largely untroubled in reaching the last eight and was exceptional in the fourth round against Mirra Andreeva. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has had an excellent tournament – delivering a timely reminder of her quality in the process – but it is very hard to see her getting the better of Sabalenka here. She does lead their head-to-head, but they have not met for nearly four years and Sabalenka is a very different proposition now. Particularly at the Australian Open.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
Coco Gauff vs Paula Badosa
Jordan:
Badosa usually runs Gauff close in their matches. The Spaniard has been mostly to dominate the 20-year-old’s forehand during those contests. However, Gauff has substantially improved that weakness since hiring Matt Daly as her coach. That might make this match a little easier than the previous battles against Badosa.
Prediction: Gauff in 2
Damian:
Badosa pushed Gauff twice last year and it’s impressive how consistent she’s become in Slams right now. And yet potentially having to get through both Gauff and Sabalenka just seems like too much. When she made a quarterfinal at the US Open a few months back, she didn’t deliver mentally in that encounter against Navarro. Gauff is so tough to face at the moment with her defense and athleticism still almost unmatched on the tour, while the forehand is now producing bullets cross-court to completely lock you out of the match.
Prediction: Gauff in 2
Ateet:
Paula Badosa has always troubled Coco Gauff and this match can get closer than it looks on paper. Badosa will be confident, but Guaff hasn’t lost a match this season and has been in excellent form. Hitting through Gauff would be the biggest challenge for Badosa and I can’t see her doing that enough to win this match.
Prediction: Gauff in 3
Yesh:
Gauff is a better player, but this is just a good matchup for Badosa. Something about her game just gives the American fits. She pushed Gauff to three sets twice last year. And while she didn’t win either, that basically makes this match a coin flip. I’ll defer to Gauff’s superior talent in the end, but I’m not at all confident in it.
Prediction: Gauff in 3
Jim:
On quicker courts against the very best in the game, Coco Gauff probably still has some room to improve. But against anyone else, she is a formidable opponent and has looked sharp so far at the Australian Open, dropping just one set in reaching the last eight. Given that Paula Badosa, at least at the moment, does not rank as one of the very best in the world, it would be a real surprise should Gauff fail to make to the Australian Open semifinals.
Prediction: Gauff in 2
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
