ATP Australian Open 1/32-Finals
Shapovalov – Musetti: 16.01.2025 02:30 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Denis Shapovalov has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Adelaide, Denis reached the second round, losing against Giron in straight sets. In the opening Australian Open round, Shapovalov won against Bautista-Agut after losing the first set 3-6. Denis trailed 0-3 in the second set, winning three consecutive games and getting back into the match. Shapovalov reduced his unforced errors and won the match in four sets. Last year in Melbourne, Denis lost in the opening round against Mensik in straight sets.
Lorenzo Musetti has lost three of his last five matches. At the beginning of the season, Musetti played in Hong Kong, where he reached the quarterfinals, losing against Munar in three tight sets. Here in Melbourne, Musetti won against Arnaldi in the opening round. It was a tight match that could have gone either way. Lorenzo’s experience prevailed in this matchup. Last year in the Australian Open, Musetti reached the second round, losing against van Assche in five tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 match, but we disagree. Under these conditions, Shapovalov will be a better player on the court. His serve should prevail in this match, considering how fast the courts are.
That being said, Shapovalov winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Denis Shapovalov winning @1.80 @bet365
Shelton – Carreno-Busta: 16.01.2025 03:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Ben Shelton has lost three of his last five matches. He started this season with a loss in Auckland last week. Shelton lost against Mensik after fighting for almost three hours on the court. In the opening Australian Open round, Shelton defeated Nakashima in tight straight sets. This will be his third appearance in the Australian Open. Last year, Ben was upset by Adrian Mannarino in the third round, losing in five tight sets. His best result came in 2023 when he reached the quarterfinals, losing against Tommy Paul.
Pablo Carreno-Busta has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Auckland, Busta lost in the opening round against Mensik in three tight sets. In Melbourne, the Spaniard showed great tennis in the opening round against Majchrzak. He was great under pressure, saving all five breakpoints. Pablo won in straight sets and spent less than two hours on the court. Last season, Pablo skipped the Australian Open because of an injury. His last appearance here was in 2023 when Bonzi stopped him in the second round in five tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Shelton is the big favorite in this matchup, but we disagree. Ben did not look great in his opening matches this season. On the other hand, Carreno-Busta already played a couple of matches and played solid tennis. We expect a tight match that could go either way.
That being said, Pablo covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Pablo Carreno-Busta +4.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
