ATP Australian Open 1/64-Finals
Basilashvili – Mensik: 13.01.2025 01:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Nikoloz Basilashvili has won four of his last five matches. So far this season, He has not played any preparation tournaments for the Australian Open. The former top-20 player is currently outside the top 200 in the rankings. Here in Melbourne, Nikoloz won his opening qualifying match against Hewitt in straight sets. In the second qualifying round, Basilashvili also defeated Kachmazov in straight sets. Nikoloz saved all six breakpoints in the final qualifying round, winning against Passaro in straight sets.
Jakub Mensik has won three of his last five matches. Mensik reached the quarterfinals this week in Auckland, losing against Borges in three tight sets. En route to the quarterfinals, Jakub defeated Ben Shelton and Carreno-Busta, both solid hard-court players. A week before that, Mensik played in Brisbane, where he reached the quarterfinals, losing against Mpetshi Perricard in straight sets as we predicted. Last year in Melbourne, Jakub successfully qualified for the main draw. He then reached the second round, losing against Hurkacz in five tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Basilashvili is the big underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Nikoloz played an almost perfect qualifying tournament and showed glimpses of his best form when he was a top-20 player. He is always a tricky opponent, and we believe that with his experience, Nikoloz will keep this match tight.
That being said, Basilashvili covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Nikoloz Basilashvili +6.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365
Rinderknech – Tiafoe: 13.01.2025 01:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0
Arthur Rinderknech has lost three of his last five matches. So far this season, Rinderknech has played two preparation tournaments. In his season-opening tournament in Brisbane, Rinderknech lost in the opening round against Nishioka in straight sets. This week in Adelaide, Arthur lost against O’Connell in the tournament’s first round, as we predicted. Last year in Melbourne, Rinderknech lost his opening match against Koov in five tight sets after spending almost five hours on the court.
Frances Tiafoe has lost three of his last five matches. So far this season, Tiafoe has only played one preparation tournament. Last week in Brisbane, Tiafoe made it to the second round, losing against Mpetshi Perricard in straight sets. Frances hopes for a solid result in the Australian Open this year to cement his top-20 status. Last year in Melbourne, Tiafoe lost in the second round against Machac in straight sets. His most significant result in Melbourne was in 2019, when he reached the quarterfinals, losing against Nadal in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Tiafoe is the big favorite in this matchup, but we disagree. Both players started this year slowly. However, Rinderknech loves to play on fast courts like this. He has a solid serve and solid ground strokes, so we expect him to keep this match tight. Tiafoe also struggled in Melbourne for the last couple of years.
That being said, Rinderknech covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Arthur Rinderknech +4.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
