When he went two-sets up against Rafael Nadal in the 2022 Australian Open final, Medvedev was on top of the world. He was on the cusp of becoming the first player ever to win their first two Slams back-to-back after his memorable triumph at the US Open a few months earlier. Indeed, with the Australian Open final seemingly wrapped up, hard-court domination appeared to beckon for the Russian. Instead, it all unravelled from there…
Three years later, not only has Medvedev not won a second Slam, he has lost yet another Australian Open final from two-sets up (to Jannik Sinner earlier in January 2024) and another US Open final too. While six Slam finals, all on hard courts, is a very impressive achievement, only winning one of them and losing two from two-sets up has to be considered a disappointing return.
These rough defeats have had the added effect of hitting Medvedev’s confidence; at this moment, it feels like Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are all but an insurmountable wall for him. Even if he were to find himself 2-0 up in sets against one of them in a Slam final, you would still not confidently back him and, worst of all, he might not either.
Medvedev has the most best resumé of any one-time Slam winner by a distance, with his six Slam finals, six Masters 1000 titles (all at different venues) and an ATP Finals title to his name. His achievements on hard courts have been particularly impressive, with Indian Wells and the Australian Open the only ‘big titles’ missing in his trophy cabinet. However, a career that seemed destined for multiple Slams when he was cruising against Nadal now looks to be in danger of coming to a close with just that 2021 US Open title.
While Medvedev remains one of the world’s best players and very tough to beat especially in hard court Slams, Alcaraz and Sinner appear to have stolen a march on him. Despite having won a Slam, he is arguably less threatening to them than someone like Alexander Zverev, because the German appears to have more belief in his ability to win the big matches (though he too has suffered his share of disappointments).
That said, it is not all doom and gloom. Medvedev’s ability is clearly still there and time is on his side. Medvedev should be in his prime physically and if he plays his best tennis he can defeat anyone in the world on a hard court. If he is to ever win a second Slam, however, 2025 might be the year he has to do it because Sinner and Alcaraz will only continue to improve.
No one has been as close to winning an Australian Open without actually winning it than Daniil Medvedev, save perhaps five-time losing finalist Andy Murray. With the pressure off, could it be that – now that nobody really expects it – he finally gets it done this January?
Main photo credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
