Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic played each other four times in the span of three months between the ATP Finals and the Australian Open. We were thinking it would be one of the defining rivalries of 2024 but while Sinner has completely dominated the season, Djokovic has – barring a remarkable run to win Olympic gold – had an indifferent year. But the Serbian has been locked in at the ATP Shanghai Masters and this should be a treat. But who will lift the title?
ATP Shanghai Final Prediction
Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner
Head-to-head: Djokovic 4-3 Sinner
Sinner has been practically unbeatable this year and the 64-6 record along with six titles has already secured him a year-end #1 finish. The Italian hasn’t beaten Carlos Alcaraz in 2024 (0-3), but won two Slams like his rival and has performed more consistently than the Spaniard. Losing the Beijing final to his rival also doesn’t seem to have left with him hangover in Shanghai as the 23-year-old has only dropped one set so far. He also looks as fresh and efficient as ever.
Djokovic won the Gold Medal at the Paris Olympics, filling in the last missing line on his resume. But he has otherwise been battling injury and poor form, and did not look anything like his sharpest at the US Open. Now the 24-time Grand Slam champion is going to limit his schedule even more and only play when he really feels like it. You can see he wants to get that 100th title in Shanghai and he’s once again proving the doubters that he’s not quite done yet.
The Sinner-Djokovic rivalry used to be quite lop-sided, but these days are long gone now. The Italian started a new chapter at the ATP Finals last year and has defeated the living legend in three of their last four meetings, including in dominant fashion at the Australian Open. He will be favoured to take this meeting in Shanghai as well. Djokovic was serving great in the semifinal against Taylor Fritz and taking advantage of the American’s more limited athleticism. But even then he started struggling with his left hip and knee in the second set, barely getting over the line.
Fritz gave him a bit of a helping hand, but he can’t count on that against Sinner. The Italian is a beast right now and any dips in intensity will be swiftly punished. Djokovic needs to come out with a hyper-aggressive mindset and hope for a godlike serving day, because it doesn’t seem like he can match what the World No. 1 can do right now when it comes to explosive movement out of the corners and violent, yet precise, ball-striking. The worst-case scenario for this match would be a rehash of the 2024 Wimbledon final, where the Serbian just wasn’t ready to handle the high-octane tennis of one of his younger rivals.
Prediction: Sinner in 2
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