An intensely packed schedule awaits us all on day 4 of ATP Shanghai as some of the top seeds are set to take to the courts for the first time and begin their quest for one of the coveted titles in these last few months of the season. As always, here at LWOT, we give you a first glance at predictions for all the matches on offer, including No. 2 seed Alexander Zverev vs Mattia Bellucci. Who do you back to come through?
ATP Shanghai Day 4 Predictions
Francis Tiafoe vs Yi Zhou
Head-to-Head: First Meeting
Francis Tiafoe has yet to replicate his great run to the Tokyo final, where he lost to fellow American Taylor Fritz in 2022. He has gone 0-3 in all his matches in the Asian swing since then, most recently being edged out in straight sets in Tokyo by Brandon Nakashima. This early exit was a big setback for Tiafoe, who had recovered from a poor start to the year and had finally found his rhythm with some fine results since the beginning of the US Open swing. The momentum has been halted now, and Tiafoe must aim to quickly remove the hindrance from his path and continue the excellent work he was doing until a few weeks ago.
The former world No. 10 achieved his career-best result at the Masters level in the most recent Masters tournament in Cincinnati this August when he defeated players like Hubert Hurkacz and Holger Rune before losing to Jannik Sinner in the title match. Yi Zhou did not appear ready or prepared to properly utilize these opportunities during the Asian swing, but the stars have aligned in his favor, making this a memorable phase for him. He has scored two main-draw wins so far, both of which came via opponent retirements in Chengdu and the Shanghai Masters, and he has twice pushed experienced players Adrian Mannarino and Pavel Kotov to the distance.
Yi Zhou has been punching well above his weight so far in this Asian swing, but even then, a test against Frances Tiafoe is too much for him to handle at this point in his young career.
Prediction: Tiafoe in 2
Lorenzo Musetti vs David Goffin
Head-to-Head: Musetti 3-0 Goffin
Lorenzo Musetti failed to progress beyond the second round of an ATP tournament for the first time in as many months last week in Beijing as he struggled physically and was eventually taken down in straight sets by the in-form Bu Yunchaokete in the second round, 2-6, 4-6. His performance so far in this Asian swing has been subpar, and the physical struggles he experienced in Beijing only add to his concerns.
David Goffin took advantage of James Duckworth’s poor form and lack of match time in recent weeks to add further momentum to his resurgence journey. This was his 41st win of the year, the most wins he has secured in a season since 2017 when he went 63-25 and attained his peak ranking of No. 7. The Belgian reached the second round in all of his previous four appearances at ATP Shanghai, going 2-2 in those matches, with the best result being a quarterfinal run in 2016.
Whether Musetti can shake off his slow start to the Asian swing is yet to be seen but this match presents a good opportunity to get this back on track for the Italian as he has been comfortable in this matchup for the most part in the past.
Prediction: Musetti in 3
Jiri Lehecka vs Jaume Munar
Head-to-Head: First Meeting
Jiri Lehecka has been making the most of a difficult patch after returning from injury and sidelined him for a few months, to his credit, he is navigating this challenging phase quite well, consistently delivering strong performances and collecting some good results along the way. He has held his own against some formidable opponents and held multiple set points against Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals in Beijing last week.
The Czech youngster has made effective use of the limited tournaments he has entered this year, with particularly strong performances at the Masters level. He reached the quarterfinals in Indian Wells, the semifinals in Madrid, and was just a set away from reaching another quarterfinal in Cincinnati recently. Lehecka will be aiming to continue his strong performance in Masters tournaments this year at ATP Shanghai.
Jaume Munar made the decision to continue taking his chances on the few remaining clay court tournaments in Europe and was rewarded for his efforts with a Challenger title in Austria before arriving in Shanghai this week. The fact he hasn’t played on hard courts since the US Open didn’t prevent him from defeating the inconsistent Hugo Gaston in the first round of the ATP Shanghai Masters. This victory marked the Spaniard’s first main-draw win on hard courts since the Australian Open, where he lost a five-setter to Adrian Mannarino in the second round.
Munar, with his strong work ethic and endurance, can exploit any potential physical vulnerabilities of his opponent. For Jiri Lehecka, if he avoids engaging in a physical tussle with the Spaniard, he should be good enough to win this match, as he is far superior in these conditions.
Prediction: Lehecka in 2
Alexander Zverev vs Mattia Bellucci
Head-to-Head: First Meeting
While Zverev is yet to make that final push in his career and secure a first grand slam title, he remains one of the standout performers in the 9 months of the season so far. He has won a staggering 57 matches to the loss of 18 matches. He will no doubt be looking to break his personal record of 60 match wins in 2018 when he finished the year 60–19 with a 76% win rate. Although the 2021 season was his best year in terms of win rate as he was at 80% with a 59–15 record.
Zverev has a good chance to improve his overall season tally with a test against the talented Mattia Bellucci. The Italian has been steadily improving but the world No. 3 is a hurdle too steep for him to overcome at this point.
Prediction: Zverev in 2
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch – Imagn Images
