ATP 500 Tokyo 1/8-Finals
Paul – Machac: 28.09.2024 Time TBA
H2H: first meeting
Tommy Paul has won four of his last five matches. Here in Tokyo, Paul defeated Arnaldi in straight sets as we predicted. Paul is the fifth seed here in Tokyo. He is looking for a solid result this week to get closer to the top 10 in the rankings. So far this season, Paul has had his biggest results on the fast courts, such as this one. Last year around this time, Tommy played in Beijing, where he lost his opening round match against Medvedev in straight sets.
Tomas Machac has lost three of his last five matches. Two weeks ago, Machac played in the Davis Cup, where he retired mid-match in both of his matches. Here in Tokyo, Tomas looked fully fit on the court. Machac won against Popyrin in three tight sets in the first round. Machac was great under pressure, saving all four breakpoints. Last year around this time, Tomas spent his time playing at the challenger level tournaments, where he had decent success.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Paul is the big favorite in this matchup. Machac loves to play on the fast courts. His serve was great in his opening match, so we believe that he will win some free points off of his serve. We believe that he will keep this match tight.
That being said, Machac covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tomas Machac +3.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365
Navone – Shelton: 27.09.2024 05:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Mariano Navone has lost three of his last five matches. This is the least favorite part of the season for the Argentinians. Mariano had his biggest results on clay, and usually underperformed on the fast courts such as this one. Here in Tokyo, Navone defeated Darderi in straight sets. So far in his career, Navone has won only two hard court matches at the ATP tour level.
Ben Shelton has won three of his last five matches. After he lost in the third round of the US Open against Tiafoe, Ben took some time off. Last week, Ben played in the Laver Cup, where he lost against Alcaraz, and won against Medvedev. Here in Tokyo, Ben defeated Opelka in three tight sets in the first round of the tournament. Shelton is looking for a solid result this week to cement his top 20 status. Last year in Tokyo, Ben won the tournament, winning against Karatsev in straight sets. That being said, Shelton has a lot of points to defend this week.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Ben is the big favorite in this matchup. We believe that Ben will absolutely dominate against Navone, and win this match easily. Navone is inexperienced at playing on fast surfaces such as this one.
That being said, Shelton winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Ben Shelton winning 2-0 @1.57 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
