ATP 250 Kitzbuhel final
Berrettini – Gaston: 27.07.2024 13:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0
Matteo Berrettini has won nine straight matches. Last week in Gstaad, Matteo won the title without dropping a single set. It was another great clay court tournament for him which got him into the top 50 in the rankings. Here in Kitzbuhel, Berrettini won his first round match against Kotov in straight sets as we predicted. Matteo needed to win two tiebreaks to get the job done against Pavel. Once again, Berrettini has shown us how good he is when playing under pressure. In the second round, Matteo won against Tabilo in two tiebreaks as we predicted. Once again, Matteo stayed calm under pressure and converted the most important points. In the quarterfinals, Berrettini won against Moreno de Alboran once again in straight sets as we predicted. We trusted Matteo in the semifinals as well. Berrettini defeated Hanfmann in straight sets as we predicted. Matteo offered only one breakpoint, which he saved as well. Other than that, it was another great serving performance from the Italian. He looks unplayable here in Kitzbuhel. Matteo just needs to stay fit, and he will be a top 10 player soon enough. The last time he played in Kitzbuhel was in 2018, where he reached the quarterfinals.
Hugo Gaston has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Hamburg, Gaston lost in the 1/8-Finals against Alexander Zverev in three tight sets. Here in Kitzbuhel, Hugo won his first round match against Altmaier after spending almost three hours on the court. It was a rollercoaster match, but Hugo stayed calm when it was most important and closed the match in the deciding set. In the second round, Hugo won against Carballes Baena in straight sets. That match was also his best performance this week. Gaston lost the serve only once. Other than that, he played great under pressure, and was just overall a better player on the court. In the quarterfinals, Gaston defeated Baez in three tight sets. He spent over three hours of again. Hugo was the underdog in that match, but his unorthodox playing style worked out for him. In the semifinals, Hugo was in better condition than his opponent, as we predicted. After winning the first set 6-1, Gaston kept playing well in the second set as well. Diaz Acosta retired mid-match as he was just too exhausted. So far this season, Gaston has not have any remarkable clay court results. His biggest result was winning the challenger title in Lyon one month ago.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Berrettini is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree with that. Matteo is currently in great form, and one of the best clay court players at the moment. If he did not have all the injuries, Matteo would have been a solid top 10 player at least. Gaston spent a lot of time on the court this week, so we believe that he will be tired for his final match against Berrettini.
That being said, Berrettini winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Matteo Berrettini winning 2-0 @1.73 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
