ATP 250 Kitzbuhel 1/8-Finals
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Berrettini – Tabilo: 24.07.2024 14:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0
Matteo Berrettini has won six straight matches. Last week in Gstaad, Matteo won the title without dropping a single set. It was another great clay court tournament for him which got him into the top 50 in the rankings. Here in Kitzbuhel, Berrettini won his first round match against Kotov in straight sets as we predicted. So far this season, Berrettini has played only eight tournaments, and reached the final four times, winning two titles. Matteo just needs to stay fit, and he will be a top 10 player soon enough. The last time he played in Kitzbuhel was in 2018, where he reached the quarterfinals.
Alejandro Tabilo has won four of his last five matches. Tabilo had a great grass court part of the season, winning the title in Mallorca and reaching the third round at Wimbledon. This will be his first match after Wimbledon. His last clay court match was at the French Open where he lost against Bergs in four sets. Tabilo had his biggest clay court result this season in Rome, where he reached the semifinals. En route to the semifinal, Tabilo won against Djokovic and some other great players.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Tabilo is the underdog in this matchup. Berrettini looked tired in his first round match here in Kitzbuhel. Tabilo is a big server, so we believe that he will be able to keep this match tight.
That being said, Tabilo covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alejandro Tabilo +2.5 games handicap @-108 @FanDuel
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Gaston – Carballes Baena: 24.07.2024 15:30 CEST
H2H: 1-1
Hugo Gaston has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Hamburg, Gaston lost in the 1/8-Finals against Alexander Zverev in three tight sets. Here in Kitzbuhel, Hugo won his first round match against Altmaier after spending almost three hours on the court. So far this season, Gaston has not have any remarkable clay court results. His biggest result was winning the challenger title in Lyon one month ago.
Roberto Carballes Baena has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Bastad, Baena reached the quarterfinals where he lost against Tirante in three tight sets. Ten days ago, Carballes won the challenger tournament in Braunschweig. Carballes spent most of his career playing on clay. His clay court results are the main reason why he is around the top 50 in the rankings. Here in Kitzbuhel, Baena won his first round match against Fucsovics in three tight sets. Last year in Kitzbuhel, Carballes lost in the second round against Baez in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Baena is the slight favorite in this matchup. Looking at both players, Baena has had a better clay court season so far. He is overall a better clay court player than Gaston, so we believe that he will win this match.
That being said, Baena winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Roberto Carballes Baena winning @1.61 @bet365
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Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
