Back in 2017 Luca Nardi and Holger Rune were among the best junior prospects, facing each other in the semifinals of the prestigious Les Petits As. The Italian took that one and won the event. Who will come out on top in their next meeting seven years later on Day 4 of the 2024 ATP Rome Masters?
As always, we also predict the rest of the matches on Friday. We split the day’s 16 matches between four articles. The other three articles feature Rafael Nadal vs Hubert Hurkacz, Daniil Medvedev vs Jack Draper, and Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Jan-Lennard Struff. Who do you think will advance?
ATP Rome Day 4 Predictions
Matteo Arnaldi vs Nicolas Jarry
Head-to-head: Jarry 2-0
This is an incredible rivalry, because both times they played Nicolas Jarry saved match point(s) and won (3 in Beijing, 1 in Adelaide). Now they’ll take on each other on clay courts, which is the most natural surface for both of them. The Chilean is still yet to pick up a win in the European part of the dirt season, but it’s not like he’s been playing horrible stuff. Matteo Arnaldi’s still on the verge of putting his game together and it’s tough to say if he’ll do it soon. This matchup could force him to play more reactively though and that’s actually for the best.
Prediction: Arnaldi in 3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Hamad Medjedovic
Head-to-head: First meeting
Hamad Medjedovic basically missed the first four months of the season with injuries and illness. The 2023 NextGen Finals champion still has incredible potential though and the moment he gets his fitness back to where it was, he could go on some massive runs. Will this happen in Rome already? His win over Alexei Popyrin might suggest so and he’s not drawing dead here. If the Serbian’s weapons keep firing, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina might be in trouble.
Prediction: Medjedovic in 3
Marcos Giron vs Andrey Rublev
Head-to-head: Rublev 1-0
While Madrid probably wasn’t one of the best events Andrey Rublev has ever played in terms of his quality, he was there to pick up the pieces when the draw fell apart a little (and Carlos Alcaraz wasn’t 100% in their quarterfinal). That run must have been very important to his confidence though, especially as he was actually on a small losing streak. It’s not the shortest turnaround from Madrid with five days of rest and it should give him enough time to be too strong for Marcos Giron here. The American just doesn’t like the clay too much.
Prediction: Rublev in 2
Luca Nardi vs Holger Rune
Head-to-head: First meeting
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are not in Rome, which might open up the draw for some “second-tier” contenders. Holger Rune will be hoping to be one of them, especially as he made the final here last year. While it feels like his consistency right now is so much worse than in 2023, the peak game is still in there somewhere. It’s an important event for the Dane and while it’s tough to trust him right now, Luca Nardi will need some help to get this done. Worth pointing out these two were once big rivals in the juniors.
Prediction: Rune in 3
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
