10-time ATP Italian Open champion Rafael Nadal moved past Zizou Bergs in the opening round and will now take on Hubert Hurkacz on Day 4 in Rome. It’s a fascinating matchup between the best clay player of all time and the No. 7 seed enjoying his most consistent season on this surface so far. Who do you think will prevail?
As always, we also predict the rest of the matches on Friday. We split the day’s 16 matches between four articles. The other three articles feature Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Jan-Lennard Struff, Daniil Medvedev vs Jack Draper, and Holger Rune vs Luca Nardi.
ATP Rome Day 4 Predictions
Juncheng Shang vs Stefano Napolitano
Head-to-head: First meeting
What a great opportunity for both players. Juncheng Shang is the luckiest of the lucky losers getting straight into round two, while Stefano Napolitano has already defeated another player who went out in the final round of qualifying in J.J. Wolf. The Italian is enjoying the best season of his career and a potential Top 100 campaign out of nowhere, while Shang is on the verge of making his debut in that group himself. Talent edge is with the Chinese, but you cant underestimate Napolitano at the moment.
Prediction: Shang in 3
Arthur Fils vs Alexandre Muller
Head-to-head: First meeting
The potential is still there for Arthur Fils, but it’s been a rocky season for him so far. Some flashes of brilliance, some rough performances like against Daniel Altmaier last week. The thing about Alexandre Muller is that while he certainly doesn’t have the explosiveness of his compatriot, he’s as tough as they get when it comes to grit and determination. He’ll force Fils to be on his best behavior, but ultimately it’s up to the 19-year-old to show if he’s up for this.
Prediction: Fils in 3
Sebastian Baez vs Dusan Lajovic
Head-to-head: 1-1
Sebastian Baez had a phenomenal Golden Swing this year, but hasn’t been able to translate it to the European part of the clay season. It’s your call whether he’s been unlucky or just unclutch, blowing winning positions against Jan-Lennard Struff in Monte Carlo (6-1 5-2 double break) and Matteo Arnaldi in Barcelona (four match points). He really needs this win over Dusan Lajovic here, but the Serbian always plays him close and won’t go down without a fight.
Prediction: Baez in 3
Hubert Hurkacz vs Rafael Nadal
Head-to-head: First meeting
Rafael Nadal is the only Big 4 member that Hubert Hurkacz was yet to face, which makes for a pretty fascinating matchup. At this stage it seems like the Spaniard can’t fully commit on serve and lost plenty of penetration on his groundstrokes, but he’s still got the tennis IQ and troublesome lefty spin. Hurkacz has a very good record against southpaws though, other than the flat-hitting ones like Ugo Humbert and Adrian Mannarino. The Nadal spin is at a different level compared to anyone else, but is that still enough these days? Let’s find out.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 2
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
