It’s time to begin the third round of the Mutua Madrid Open. Denis Shapovalov and Alexander Zverev, who played a semifinal here back in 2018, will close the action on Manolo Santana Stadium. Can the two-time champion, who leads the head-to-head 5-3, defeat the former World No. 10 again?
ATP Madrid Day 5 Predictions
Ugo Humbert vs Jan-Lennard Struff
Head-to-head: Struff 1-0
It would be unwise to think of Jan-Lennard Struff as a huge contender at ATP Madrid only due to his Munich title and the run last year, but with every passing day, the thought becomes less and less ridiculous. The performance over Jaume Munar in the second round was spectacular, and the German was able to keep up all their momentum from last week. Let’s see how far he can go, but it seems that he has to be considered the favorite against Ugo Humbert, given how much he loves quicker clay conditions.
Prediction: Struff in 3
Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Head-to-head: Rublev 3-0
Andrey Rublev posted a much-needed win on Friday, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina did too. Both haven’t won a match on clay this year, especially the Russian one, who suddenly found himself on a big losing run (four defeats in a row). Now that they got that out of the way, this actually projects as a very exciting clash. Peak Davidovich Fokina has all the tools to trouble Rublev, but the high base level of the seventh seed just makes him a lot more reliable. We haven’t seen that peak game from the Spaniard in a while.
Prediction: Rublev in 3
Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier
Head-to-head: Hurkacz 1-0
Daniel Altmaier made his maiden ATP 1000 quarterfinal at this venue last year, and while his run didn’t include any statement wins, he’s proving this week that he really feels extremely comfortable in Madrid. But Hubert Hurkacz won’t be easy to stop. The Pole is 7-1 on clay this year and fired 22 forehand winners in a straight-set win over Jack Draper. He’s been hitting through that shot very well the last month, which might render some of Altmaier’s baseline variety slightly irrelevant.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 2
Denis Shapovalov vs Alexander Zverev
Head-to-head: Zverev 5-3
Alexander Zverev has a phenomenal record in Madrid with an over 80% win rate (22-4) and two titles. The German’s serve always stands out in these conditions, and in the last two editions, he was only defeated by Carlos Alcaraz here (after winning the title in 2021). Denis Shapovalov is slowly rebuilding his form, and while clay isn’t the perfect moment for him to keep going, he’s already beaten two surface specialists this week. Zverev might be just too much, though, and their only previous meeting in Madrid was a bit of a beatdown.
Prediction: Zverev in 2
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane – USA TODAY Sports
