Iga Swiatek lost in the WTA Madrid final to Aryna Sabalenka last year, a clash that was mentioned in all the match-of-the-season conversations. The Pole is deadly on clay, but she’s actually yet to win this event with just two previous appearances. Can she pull it off this time? Her first opponent will be the 23-year-old Xiyu Wang.
WTA Madrid Day 3 Predictions
Madison Keys vs Irina-Camelia Begu
Head-to-head: Keys 1-0
Both Madison Keys and Irina-Camelia Begu haven’t been able to compete as much they want to this year, and both will only be appearing on the court for the seventh time in 2024. The American was showing she still has it during Miami, but her clay-court campaign suffered an early setback when she lost to Jaqueline Cristian in Charleston. Begu made the final of the WTA 125 in Antalya and beat Linda Fruhvirtova in the first round here. The Romanian has made the quarterfinals three times here (2015-16, 2023), she loves this venue and is a true clay specialist.
Prediction: Begu in 3
Emiliana Arango vs Dayana Yastremska
Head-to-head: 1-1
Dayana Yastremska is still looking for the right follow-up to her Australian Open run and the faster clay in Madrid could help her out. She’s facing Emiliana Arango who’s practically an altitude specialist with lots of experience in such conditions coming from Columbia. However, 600-700 meters above sea level in Madrid is far from extreme and isn’t granting Arango as much of an advantage as she had over the rest of the field at the WTA 1000 in Guadalajara. If Yastremska’s locked in, she really shouldn’t struggle here.
Prediction: Yastremska in 2
Elise Mertens vs Sloane Stephens
Head-to-head: 2-2
Sloane Stephens is coming off a very strong set of performances to claim the title in Rouen and while it took over three hours, her win over Martina Trevisan here was also relatively high-quality. The focus from the American can be so up and down, but red clay is her surface after all. She’s yet to play Elise Mertens on it and lost their most recent meeting in Brisbane this year. The Belgian remains a very solid player, but the peak game of Stephens seems a lot more scary.
Prediction: Stephens in 3
Iga Swiatek vs Xiyu Wang
Head-to-head: First meeting
Madrid is the only big event on clay Iga Swiatek hasn’t won yet, but she made the final last year and only played here twice overall. In fact, it might end up being better for her than Stuttgart as while the altitude doesn’t increase her edge over the rest of the field, the bounce should actually be a lot more manageable than at the German indoor venue. Xiyu Wang has some potential and might have a few games where she fights back against her, but it’s keeping that up over an extended patch that will likely be the dealbreaker.
Prediction: Swiatek in 2
Main Photo Credit: Taya Gray/The Desert Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK
