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ATP Madrid Best Bets Including Bautista-Agut vs Ramos-Vinolas

Roberto Bautista Agut in action ahead of the ATP Stockholm Open.

ATP Madrid qualifications

Nakashima – Ugo Carabelli: 23.04.2024 11:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Brandon Nakashima has won three of his last five matches. Last week, Nakashima reached the 1/8-Finals in Barcelona. En route to the 1/8-Finals, Nakashima had two big wins against Evans and Rublev. Before the ATP 500 in Barcelona, Nakashima reached the quarterfinals in Houston, also on clay. Even though the clay surface is his least favorite one, Nakashima played well this year on clay. So far this season, Nakashima has won 5 matches and lost only 2 on the clay courts. Today, Nakashima played his first qualification round against an unranked player, Bennani. Nakashima won in three sets, 6-1, 6-7, 6-1.

Ugo Carabelli has won three of his last five matches. Earlier this month, Ugo Carabelli reached the semifinals at the Florianópolis challenge. He played almost all of his matches at the challenger tour level, and also mostly on the clay. Ugo Carabelli has already won 2 challenger titles this season on the clay. He is playing well and is on the verge of breaking into the top 100. Here in Madrid, Ugo won against Zapata Miralles in straight sets today. He saved all five breakpoints and served really well throughout the whole match.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Nakashima is the big favorite in this matchup. However, Ugo Carabelli has had some great results this season already. We believe that this will be a very tight match, so expect Ugo Carabelli to win at least one set.

That being said, Ugo Carabelli winning at least one set is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Ugo Carabelli to win at least one set @-158 @FanDuel

Bautista-Agut – Ramos-Vinolas: 23.04.2024 12:30 CEST
H2H: 2-3

Bautista-Agut has won three of his last five matches. Last week, Agut reached the 1/8-Finals in Barcelona where he lost against Norrie in straight sets. Today, Bautista-Agut played his first qualification match against the unranked player, Omarkhanov. He won easily in straight sets, but we have to say that his opponent was not good enough for this type of tournament. Bautista-Agut has not have any remarkable results this season so far. If he does not start winning at his favorite part of the season, Bautista may drop out of the top 100.

Ramos-Vinolas has won three of his last five matches. He spent most of this season playing at the challenger tour level on the clay courts. Earlier this month, Ramos played in a challenger tournament in Madrid where he reached the quarterfinals. After that, he got the wildcard for ATP Barcelona last week, where he lost in the first round against Muller in straight sets. Today, Vinolas saved two match points against Schwartzman and came back after he was set down. He spent almost three hours tonight against out-of-form Schwartzman.

Best Bet to Make

We believe that Bautista-Agut is currently a better clay court player than Ramos-Vinolas. Even though he did not have any remarkable results this season, Agut played most of this season at the biggest ATP tournaments. On the other hand, Vinolas struggled at the challenger tour level.

That being said, Bautista-Agut winning in straight sets is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Bautista-Agut to win 2-0 @-140 @FanDuel

Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports


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