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ATP Monte Carlo Final Prediction: Casper Ruud vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Stefanos Tsitsipas ahead of ATP Barcelona Open.

Just what we all thought coming into the week … a Casper Ruud vs Stefanos Tsitsipas final at ATP Monte Carlo! All jokes aside, these have been two of the better clay-courters on Tour over the past few seasons and have played scintillating tennis to reach the final. Let’s dive into how they reached the final and what we can expect on Sunday.

ATP Monte Carlo Final Prediction

Casper Ruud vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Head-to-Head: Ruud 2-2 Tsitsipas

All things considered, Casper Ruud had a solid first three months of the 2024 season. He reached at least the quarterfinals in four of the six events he competed in, including runner-up finishes in Los Cabos and Acapulco. Ruud defeated Alejandro Tabilo, Hubert Hurkacz, Ugo Humbert, and World No. 1 Novak Djokovic en route to the Monte Carlo final. His 6-4 1-6 6-4 semifinal victory over Djokovic was Ruud’s first career win over a top-three player and should give him the belief that he can win big titles during the clay season.

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On the other hand, Stefanos Tsitsipas struggled to begin his 2024 campaign. In February, the Greek dropped out of the top ten for the first time in four years. He arrived at ATP Monte Carlo with a 2-3 record in his last five matches and was not seen as a top-tier contender at the first clay-court Masters event of the season. However, his tennis this week shows why he is widely considered one of the best clay-court players in the world. The 25-year-old dispatched Laslo Djere, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Alexander Zverev, and Karen Khachanov in straight sets before battling past Jannik Sinner 6-4 3-6 6-4 in the semis. His win over Sinner was his first win over a top-two-ranked player since August 2022.

Ruud ousted Tsitsipas 6-4 7-6 earlier this year in Los Cabos. Expect the Greek to go on the offensive early and often during Sunday’s final. Tsitsipas is at his best when attacking with his forehand and moving up to the net, two things he has done brilliantly at Monte Carlo. We all know about his backhand woes, but when dictating the point, he can hide this weakness and play with aggression.

Ruud is one of the best movers in the world on the clay and will force the Greek to hit extra balls to win points. For the Norwegian, this match is all about holding his serve and taking advantage of the opportunities Stef gives him. Expect a terrific battle with many high-quality, long rallies. In the end, I see Tsitsipas claiming his third ATP Monte Carlo title. There’s something about this place that he absolutely loves.

Prediction: Tsitsipas in 3

Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane – USA TODAY Sports


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