ATP Santiago Final Prediction: Sebastian Baez vs Alejandro Tabilo

ATP Santiago Final Prediction

Alejandro Tabilo vs Sebastian Baez

Head-to-head: 1-1

Almost dropping out of the Top 200 this time last year, Alejandro Tabilo was at a crossroads in his career. The Chilean was able to fight back very quickly though and with four Challenger titles last year, he showed that his 2022 campaign was not yet the peak version of his game. After claiming his maiden ATP Tour trophy in Auckland earlier this year, he’s back in another final and has already secured his debut in the Top 40, jumping over 140 spots in the rankings in about 12 months.

Sebastian Baez has been the standout player of the Golden Swing so far, making the quarterfinals in all four events. Now he’s also on an 8-match win streak with his title in Rio de Janeiro and gets a chance to secure his Top 20 debut if he goes back-to-back. The Argentinian is flying high at the moment and holds a 12-2 record since the beginning of February. In Santiago he lost his opening set of the event to Juan Pablo Varillas, but has been spot-on since.

Tabilo and Baez traded their two previous meetings, both during the Golden Swing (Buenos Aires 2021 and Cordoba 2022). All the efforts over last month might have weakened the 23-year-old a little physically, but if you think about it 15th match in 29 days really isn’t the end of the world. Especially after his semifinal against Pedro Martinez perhaps wasn’t easy, but it was comfortable enough to grant him some breathing space. Tabilo problem-solved very well in the semifinals to step away from his usual tactics and find a way to prevail. Against someone as confident as Baez is right now, he would probably need something different, a perfect display of his clay attacking game.
Prediction: Baez in 3