The penultimate ATP Masters 1000 event of 2023 has provided much entertainment. There have been several upsets along the way, but we have now reached the final four players. Andrey Rublev is the only player left in the draw to have reached a Masters 1000 this season. We at LWOT provide our predictions and analysis for both ATP Shanghai semifinals in this article. But who will reach the final?
ATP Shanghai Semifinal Predictions
Hubert Hurkacz vs Sebastian Korda
Head-to-head: Hurkacz 1-1 Korda
These two met at the Australian Open earlier this year. Korda prevailed on that occasion in a five-set epic. This is one of the toughest semifinals to call so far this season. Both players have shown their mental fortitude by winning tight matches to reach this stage of the ATP Shanghai Masters. This is Korda’s third consecutive semifinal since the US Open and he has clearly found his form again. Conditions are also slower this year than previously in Shanghai, which will help Korda to return the huge Hurkacz first-serve.
However, the slow courts could also work in Hurkacz’s favour. Returning is the weakest part of the Pole’s game, and the conditions have allowed him to get a better foothold than usual in return games. Hurkacz’s movement is also less exposed, which is the other weakness in the 2021 Miami Masters champion’s game. Expect this to be a very close battle. But Hurkacz gets a slight edge at the ATP Shanghai Masters. He is more experienced at this stage of a Masters 1000 event than Korda and may just hold his nerve slightly better on serve and in the rallies when it matters most.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 3
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Andrey Rublev vs Grigor Dimitrov
Head-to-head: Rublev 3-3 Dimitrov
All the previous matches between these two have been on hardcourts, although Rublev leads 3-1 on outdoor hardcourts specifically. This ATP Shanghai Masters semifinal does feel like a bigger occasion for Dimitrov. The Bulgarian is enjoying his best season since 2017. However, at the age of 32 he may wonder how many more chances to reach the final of a Masters 1000 event will arrive. The 25-year-old Monte-Carlo Masters champion Rublev will not have such concerns on his mind.
The Dimitrov forehand and serve are his best shots but I think how Rublev handles the Dimitrov slice is the most important part of this ATP Shanghai clash. It is a shot Dimitrov has used very effectively this season, but it could allow the Russian to bring bring his forehand into play. But Rublev is notorious for hot-tempered nature on court, and he may get frustrated very quickly if he gets drawn into making repeated errors from Dimitrov consistently putting the ball into court with his slice.
Dimitrov has faltered many times in the past at this stage but his confidence and assuredness feels different after his win against Carlos Alcaraz. This could go either way, but Dimitrov’s more calm on-court demeanour could get him over the line at the ATP Shanghai Masters.
Prediction: Dimitrov in 3
Main photo credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
