Day 3 kicks off at the ATP Masters in in Shanghai with the premier event on the Asian swing fully underway. Daniil Medvedev will look to continue his good results in China as he plays his first match after the Beijing final. Four players–Mackenzie McDonald, Francisco Cerundolo, Dusan Lajovic, and Tallon Griekspoor–are all in action after enjoying a good 2023 so far. The last month is crucial to continue their success and ensure they have a strong ranking and momentum to carry over into 2024. Holger Rune and Brandon Nakashima face off to both try and right the ship after struggling for the last few months. It should be an exciting day in the penultimate Masters 1000 event of the year, and all matches are previewed at Last Word on Tennis.
ATP Shanghai Masters Day 2 Predictions
Mackenzie McDonald vs Francisco Cerundolo
Head-to-head: 1-0 Cerundolo
Cerundolo beat McDonald earlier this year on the grass courts in Eastbourne en route to his first title outside of clay at the Challenger level or higher. That event and his year as a whole have shown him take a major step forward outside of the clay and score results on any surface. His rankings have reflected that as he reached the top-20 in the world for the first time in his career. He does have a tricky matchup in McDonald, who plays good defensive tennis and can play competitive long baseline rallies with Cerundolo. McDonald has had mixed results on hard courts this fall but has focused on the surface and scored some strong wins including beating Andrey Rublev in straight sets in Toronto. This will be one of the more entertaining matches of the day with each player fighting for every point, with Cerundolo having a slightly more complete game which will be the edge he needs to win.
Prediction: Cerundolo in 3
Holger Rune vs Brandon Nakashima
Head-to-head: 1-0 Nakashima
While Nakashima won their lone meeting, that was back in 2021 well before Rune rounded into the player he is today. Rune has had a strong season and is currently the #5 player in the world. Nakashima has struggled in 2023 after a good year last year, and has dropped outside of the top-100. He came into Shanghai on a 4 match losing streak which he finally snapped against Zapata Miralles in round one. Rune has been struggling a good bit himself, having disappointing results back on hard courts after a good start to the season. Rune is still a much better player and the Shanghai courts generally playing fast before the indoor swing as he enjoys the quick hard courts like the ones in Paris where he will defend his title this year. Nakashima has not been sharp and does not have a major weapon to get through Rune so this will be quick.
Prediction: Rune in 2
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Dusan Lajovic vs Tallon Griekspoor
Head-to-head: First meeting
Both players are enjoying strong seasons and looking to keep that momentum for the end of the year. Lajovic has had a majority of success on clay including the title in Srpska which has long been his favorite surface. He can be dangerous on hard, as he knocked out Jannik Sinner in Cincinnati. Griekspoor hits with power and while he is great on grass, the fast courts in Shanghai should play to his strengths. He has been struggling on hard court, losing four of his last five completed matches. Lajovic can give Griekspoor trouble but Griekspoor matches up well and his power will neutralize and prevent Lajovic’s ability to fully utilize his great touch shots. This match should be close but it will swing Griekspoor’s way in the end.
Prediction: Griekspoor in 3
Daniil Medvedev vs Cristian Garin
Head-to-head: 2-1 Medvedev
Editor’s Note: This match will actually be played on Saturday, but it’s from Friday’s half of the draw so it’s included in this article.
Medvedev won their lone hard court meeting and even scored a win over Garin on clay, the Chilean’s best surface. Garin has traditionally been a clay court specialist but has significantly improved his play on hard court. He unfortunately gets one of the best hard court players in the world who has been dominant on the surface this year, especially in early rounds of events. There is always the potential of an upset after making the final the previous week as Medvedev did in Beijing, but Medvedev did not spend a ton of time on court and has an extra day off after short travel between the tournaments. Medevedev may not go deep after a long week, but he is far superior to Garin on a hard court and will win easily.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
