We have reached the final four of the ATP Beijing Open. The draw was incredibly strong from the beginning of the event, and that is reflected by the quality of the four semifinalists. 2021 US Open champion Daniil Medvedev battles Alexander Zverev, while last year’s US Open winner Carlos Alcaraz plays fellow young star Jannik Sinner. We at LWOT give our analysis and prediction for the two matches in this article. But which two players do you think will progress to the final?
ATP Beijing Semifinal Predictions
Alexander Zverev vs Daniil Medvedev
Head-to-head: Medvedev 9-7 Zverev
Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz’s rivalry has created the most headlines this season, but the Zverev vs. Medvedev rivalry has also been one of the best of 2023. They have played four times this year, with Medvedev leading 3-1 overall. Zverev did win the last of those matches in Cincinnati, as three of those contests were epic battles that went deep into a third set.
The results of their rivalry this year may seem slightly surprising on paper. Zverev has had a preference for slower courts throughout his career, while Medvedev usually thrives in faster conditions. Yet Medvedev beat Zverev on a very slow hard court in Indian Wells, and then twice on clay. Yet Zverev defeated the five-time Grand Slam finalist in the faster conditions in Cincinnati. An explanatory factor is Zverev’s return from injury. He was not near his best earlier in the season after coming back from the terrible injury he sustained at the French Open. The German is now playing much better in the second half of the season, which coincides with faster courts.
Overall though, I am giving Medvedev the edge in this ATP Beijing semifinal. I do think the conditions suit him well. Also, a strong net game is important to have against Medvedev in these conditions. Ugo Humbert showed this by troubling the 27-year-old for long periods with it in the quarterfinal. Zverev is playing really well, and a win for him is certainly possible, but the self-titled hard-court specialist is a slight favourite.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner
Head-to-head: Alcaraz 3-3 Sinner
It is another edition of the rivalry that will be at the forefront of tennis for years to come. Sinner is one of the few players who can play without any mental baggage against Alcaraz. He has beaten the Spaniard in three of their last five meetings, and the Italian has proven his game can trouble his Spanish counterpart.
Yet I still feel relatively confident that Alcaraz will prevail, mainly due to how well he has played this week. By contrast, Sinner has played well in patches, but did drop his level for long periods against Dan Evans and Grigor Dimitrov. Secondly, Sinner has struggled physically at times in his three matches at the ATP Beijing Open. He was limping in the third set of his contests against Evans and Dimitrov, but managed to produce enough quality to get over the line in both. The intensity will undoubtedly be higher against the two-time Grand Slam champion, putting Sinner at risk.
I also think the fast conditions in Beijing suit Alcaraz more in this matchup. Both players strike the ball so cleanly, but the Spaniard undoubtedly is the better mover. That advantage can be exposed more on a quicker court, where Sinner could be left feeling routinely off-balance and out of position. Sinner beating Alcaraz in their only match on clay is evidence of how a slower court may actually favor him.
Sinner’s chances cannot be ruled out due to his three previous wins against Alcaraz. However, I think the world No. 2 will win their ATP Beijing Open battle.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Main Photo Credit: Kareem Elgazzar – The Enquirer – USA TODAY NETWORK