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US Open Semifinal Predictions: Madison Keys vs Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka BNP Paribas Open

The second women’s semifinal at the US Open is finally set, and we are in for an incredible match. Aryna Sabalenka will be World #1 next week no matter what happens, but can she reach the final? Madison Keys is playing perhaps the best tennis of her life. Can she match her final appearance form 2017? Our writers share their thoughts on the match. Predicting this match are Jordan Reynolds, Ryan Schick, Shane Black, Yesh Ginsburg, and Andreas Pelekis. Who do you think will advance? We also have predictions for the other women’s semifinal match, between Madison Keys and Aryna Sabalenka.


There will be much hard hitting in this semifinal. Sabalenka has been the favourite since Swiatek’s exit, but Keys should not be written off. The home favourite has held over 95% of her service games, and is looking in the form of her life. I think this will be go to a third set. Expect the Australian Open champion to be just a little calmer in the big moments.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3


Sabalenka and Keys have both been excellent so far, dropping just one set combined. However, Sabalenka has been truly dominant, not allowing any opponent to win more than five games in a match. Keys is hoping to make her first Major final since 2017, while Sabalenka has been the toughest player to beat at majors this year. Sabalenka is absolutely locked in and if she continues playing her powerful game and limiting errors, she will win convincingly even against a hostile crowd.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2


Two of the most powerful ball-strikers on tour square off in this semifinal bout. Sabalenka holds the 2-1 head-to-head advantage over Keys, including a 6-2 6-4 win in July at Wimbledon. That said, Keys has dropped just one set in New York and has been using the crowd support to her advantage. I expect a back-and-forth battle, but trust the new world no. 1 to find a way to limit her unforced error count and work her way to the final.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3


I’m honestly all-in on Madison Keys this tournament. She is playing with such perfect controlled aggression, and she’ll have the home crowd behind her the entire time. Sabalenka has been prone to cracking under pressure. And while she hasn’t done so yet this year, she has never faced a hostile environment like she will face in New York in recent years. I expect Keys to pull through, and probably win this whole thing, to boot.
Prediction: Keys in 2

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This will be an exciting battle of the heavy hitters, with both players ironically winning 6-1 6-4 in each of their quarterfinal matches. Sabalenka is yet to come anywhere near dropping a set, so it’ll be interesting to see whether she faces any pressure. This will definitely be tougher for Sabalenka compared to past matches, as the Belarusian will have less time to prepare her powerful groundstrokes. Keys also will have the crowd on her side, something that will surely be interesting. In the end, look for Sabalenka to edge through.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3

Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports


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