The local crowd is crazy about Dominic Thiem and part of why he’s in the final is their continued support. Another thing though is that his confidence and aggression under pressure haven’t been at these levels since the wrist injury. Standing opposite him and the title is Sebastian Baez, seeking his second ATP Tour trophy of 2023. Who do you think will come out on top?
ATP Kitzbuhel Final Prediction
Sebastian Baez vs Dominic Thiem
Head-to-head: Baez 1-0 Thiem
Baez came to Kitzbuhel on a four-match losing streak, but we’re not going to judge him based on grass results. The last two performances (on clay) were already promising, he just run into dangerous opposition early. In his first-ever appearance at Kitzbuhel, he’s only dropped one set on the way to the final, prevailing over his countryman Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the final four.
Thiem, meanwhile, has been the star of the show this week with all the fans in Kitzbuhel rooting for him to get back to form. The Austrian has been giving them lots of joy with three consecutive fightbacks from a set down against Zhizhen Zhang, Arthur Rinderknech, and Laslo Djere. In the semifinals on Friday, Thiem saved five match points and prevailed after about three and a half hours.
Baez won their only head-to-head meeting in Bastad last year, beating the 2020 US Open champion 6-2 6-7 6-4. That was quite early into Thiem’s comeback from a wrist injury. However, before Kitzbuhel, it seemed like nothing has actually improved a full year later. But this week, the Austrian is finally trusting his forehand again under pressure and has been firing backhand down-the-line bombs all along.
The big question is whether Thiem holds up physically. Three consecutive three-setters is already a workload and the clash with Djere will have taken a lot out of him both mentally and stamina-wise. While this week we can finally see progress in the former World No. 3’s game, it seems like all the effort he needed to put in to get here actually makes a dent in his chances to win the final.
Prediction: Baez in 3
Main photo credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
