A few days ago I argued on this website that Carlos Alcaraz is not the biggest threat to Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon. The Spaniard has been seen as the comfortable second favorite at Wimbledon by most in the media. I have felt that contrary to most opinion–it is actually 2021 US Open champion Daniil Medvedev who poses the biggest risk to Djokovic’s unbeaten streak at the All England Club. Alcaraz plays Medvedev and Djokovic takes on Sinner on Friday in the semifinals. Therefore, now seems like the right time to articulate why I believe Medvedev would be more likely to trouble the seven-time Wimbledon champion than Alcaraz or Sinner.
Why Daniil Medvedev is the Biggest Threat to Djokovic
1. The importance of the serve
Both Alcaraz and Sinner have very good serves. Alcaraz in particular has added some pace to his serve in the last 12 months. But it is Medvedev who has the most potent first serve when he is at his very best. Before Wimbledon began, he had hit 100 more aces this season than Sinner, and over 150 more than Alcaraz. It is nearly impossible to challenge Djokovic on grass without winning a healthy number of free points on serve. Hubert Hurkacz demonstrated this in the fourth round against the Serb. His serve was only broken once in the four sets played, and the Pole probably should have won the first two sets after being 6-5 and 5-4 up with a mini-break in both tiebreaks.
Medvedev’s serve is slightly below Hurkacz’s level, but it is still one of the best, and the most likely to cause Djokovic problems of the players left in the draw. The 23-time Grand Slam champion is the best returner in tennis history, but is also the best in the world from the baseline on grass. A great server who can take the racquet out of the hand of the greatest returner for long periods is essential to beat him. Medvedev is the best equipped for that.
2. The style of Medvedev’s groundstrokes
Alcaraz and Sinner do not have absolutely identical playing styles, but there are clear similarities. Both men hit the ball hard from the back of the court, most notably on the forehand side which they try and bring into play at every opportunity. Medvedev has a more patient and awkward style of play. For example, he made just seven unforced errors in the first four sets of his quarterfinal with Christopher Eubanks, eventually wearing down the American, who was in inspired form for most of the contest. Djokovic is the player most capable of withstanding the speed of Alcaraz and Sinner’s groundstrokes, and leaving both players rushed as they struggle to take full swings at Djokovic’s shots. That is why a slower and bouncier court would suit both more against Djokovic.
Medvedev is the opposite. His swings are shorter and more compact, capable of power but placing a greater emphasis on consistency, placement, and using the pace generated by his opponent. The four-time Grand Slam finalist will not panic as much if he does not feel he can hit through Djokovic early in a rally. The earlier point still stands that free points on serve are a must, but in the inevitable rallies that do occur I argue that grass gives Medvedev a chance to use his strengths against Djokovic of re-directing the pace of his opponent. On fast courts such as Dubai and Cincinnati, and somewhat fast courts like at the US Open Medvedev has beaten Djokovic. Wimbledon is not as fast as it was the past, but it is still quicker than most courts, which is what Medvedev prefers in a matchup with Djokovic.
3. How the Wimbledon grass changes
Although Medvedev’s flat shots and big serve suit grass well, he has had the vast majority of his success on hard courts and has referred to himself as a hard court specialist in the past. He certainly moves most comfortably on that surface. The good news for Medvedev is that all the matches that have been played on Centre Court throughout Wimbledon mean the grass has become very worn, creating harder dirt patches in the areas the players most commonly move on. These harder patches are not exactly like hard courts, but are more reminiscent of hard courts than the very lush grass of the opening days of the tournament. This can help Medvedev in the movement battle with Djokovic, which is crucially important.
It is possible this could help Sinner and Alcaraz somewhat as well. But I argue it is of greater importance to Medvedev, whose movement on hard courts has far exceeded his efforts on other surfaces, whereas the quality of Alcaraz and Sinner’s movements across the surfaces is more equal–although it is still the surface they can improve on the most in this regard.
4. The lack of a mental block for Medvedev
The technical and surface elements I’ve mentioned are of considerable importance. But sometimes what is happening inside a player’s mind is more important than the technical matchup. Medvedev is the only one of the three players to have beaten Djokovic at a Grand Slam. And he did it convincingly in straight sets in the US Open final in a match that would have seen the Serb win the Calendar Grand Slam had he won. The surface and tournament may be different. But Medvedev would step onto Centre Court in the final against Djokovic knowing he’s been on this type of stage with him before. And he won.
By contrast, although Alcaraz and Sinner are fantastic players, they both have some mental scarring against the defending champion. The last time Alcaraz was on Centre Court with Djokovic he cramped up at the beginning of the third set and was not able to compete properly in the last two sets. Although I’m sure the current US Open champion will have discussed at length with his team about why that happened, it is impossible for that not to be in the back of his mind when he plays Djokovic next. The last time Sinner faced Djokovic was on Centre Court at Wimbledon last year, when the Italian held a two-set lead but ended up losing, with the last two sets finishing 6-2. Whilst the #8 seed may take some encouragement from winning two sets, losing from such a healthy position can leave a lasting effect on a player. And Sinner has lost another three matches in five sets since that defeat.
To be clear, I am not saying Alcaraz and Sinner beating Djokovic is impossible. They are both excellent players, and are the future of tennis. If Sinner upset Djokovic in the semifinals, or Alcaraz then met the Serb in the final and defeated him, it would be surprising, but far from the biggest shock in tennis history. This article has simply argued that Medvedev is more likely to cause an upset against Djokovic than Sinner or Alcaraz when the matchup and context is fully analyzed. The 2021 US Open champion has to apply the right strategy to get past Alcaraz first to make the matchup with Djokovic a possibility. That is a very difficult task itself.
Main Photo Credit: Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports
