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Is Frances Tiafoe a contender at the French Open?

Frances Tiafoe in action at the French Open.

Frances Tiafoe started his 2023 Roland Garros campaign with a straight-forward 6-3 6-4 6-2 victory over world #103 Filip Krajinovic. The difference for the American came from the service line, as he won 82 percent of his first serves while knocking in 15 aces and just two double faults. He finished the match with 47 winners and 25 unforced errors, including 13 net points won. Tiafoe’s variety and ability to win points in multiple ways was too much for the veteran Serbian to contend with. 

As surprising as it sounds, it was only Tiafoe’s second main-draw victory at the French Open.

Tiafoe will face Aslan Karatsev in the second round. The 29-year-old Russian qualifier won his first-round match 6-3 6-7 6-1 6-2 over Alexei Popyrin. Karatsev has been in some form over the last six weeks, winning 14 of his 16 clay-court matches. In that period, he has wins over Jan-Lennard Struff, Botic van de Zandschulp, Alex de Minaur, and Daniil Medvedev. Tiafoe will be the favourite tagainst Karatsev, but his victory is by no means a sure thing.

If Tiafoe can get past Karstev, it will set up a round of 32 matchup against the survivor of the Alexander Zverev, Lloyd Harris, Hugo Gaston, and Alex Molcan quartet. All four players would provide unique challenges to Tiafoe, but again, he will be the favorite to win that match. Looking further down the line, Tiafoe has a potential round of 16 match against eighth seed Jannik Sinner or recent Geneva runner-up Grigor Dimitrov. He also resides in the same quarter as world #2 Daniil Medvedev, world 15 Borna Coric, and world #18 Alex de Minaur.

When looking toward potential second-week matchups in a Slam, there will be no “easy” path. That said, Tiafoe is in the much lighter half of the draw, with world #1 Carlos Alcaraz, 22-time Major champion Novak Djokovic, former-finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas, and recent Monte Carlo champion Andrey Rublev all in the opposite side of the draw to the American. Which reaises the question – could Tiafoe be a contender in Paris?

In short, the answer is yes. Tiafoe is a player who raises his level in the biggest events of the year. He feeds off the crowd’s energy and does a fantastic job of pulling the spectators’ support to his side. His serve has massively improved over the last 18 months and has become a weapon that gives him larger margins for error. Tiafoe fended off all six break points he faced in Round 1, primarily due to an unreturned serve. On top of that, he possesses the ability to win points in so many different ways. His power off both wings is world-class, and so are his hands at the net. In these two-week-long tournaments, players are forced to win matches in multiple ways – This is something Tiafoe is very capable of.

One may look at Tiafoe’s European clay-court lead-up (two wins in three events) and question how he can be a contender at Roland Garros. But look at Tiafoe’s play before the 2022 US Open. He came to Flushing with a 2-3 record in his previous five matches. He threw his previous form out the window, picking up wins over Diego Schwartzman, Rafael Nadal, and Rublev before falling in the fifth set of the US Open semifinals to eventual champion Alcaraz.

Tiafoe’s subpar French Open lead-up is not a real concern. His straight-set victory over a potentially dangerous first-round opponent in Krajinovic shows that the 25-year-old American is locked and loaded for another deep Grand Slam run.

Main photo credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

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