Not to take anything away from Marie Bouzkova (who was the second seed here), but this is probably the best final we could have hoped for at the 2023 WTA Mexican Open in Monterrey. Top-seeded Caroline Garcia takes on in-form Donna Vekic, who was the third highest-ranked player in the field. Who do you think will prevail?
WTA Monterrey Final Prediction
Caroline Garcia vs Donna Vekic
Head-to-head: Vekic 5-4
Caroline Garcia hasn’t really reached her 2nd half of 2022 heights this year so far, but she has still managed to cement her status as one of the best in the world. After losing the final in Lyon to Alycia Parks, the Frenchwoman only got one win in Doha/Dubai, but that was more on the insane strength of the draws in these events (Maria Sakkari, Caroline Garcia). In Monterrey, she hasn’t lost more than four games in a set yet and was only broken once (by Nuria Parrizas-Diaz).
Donna Vekic is still flying a bit under the radar, but she’s been on an incredible run since San Diego last year–20 wins and four losses. Her 2023 win/loss record stands at 13-2 and includes a quarterfinal appearance at the Australian Open. The Croat used to be a Top 20 player before the injuries, but you could argue that this is close to her absolute peak. She hasn’t been as clean as Garcia this week though, getting a retirement at 2-6 5-0 from Lesia Tsurenko and surviving a deciding tie-break with Ysaline Bonaventure.
Garcia and Vekic will meet for the 10th time, first since the Tokyo Olympics. Their rivalry has always been really close and features seven matches that went to a decider. They’ve even played a WTA final before with the Frenchwoman clinching a thriller in Nottingham 2-6 7-6 7-6. On outdoor hard courts, Vekic has a 3-0 lead, but they haven’t played in conditions like the ones in Monterrey.
The top seed has been so dominant against the field for a reason and her high-risk style with a big serve is definitely profitable on the courts and at 500m altitude here. If the 29-year-old can keep up her level, she should clinch her 12th WTA title.
Prediction: Garcia in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
