WTA Austin Final Prediction: Marta Kostyuk vs Varvara Gracheva

Marta Kostyuk Miami Open

The 32-woman WTA 250 draw in Austin, Texas, has dwindled to two finalists as NextGen stars Marta Kostyuk and Varvara Gracheva are set to square off in the final of the ATX Open. Both women are searching for their first career WTA singles title, adding extra intrigue to this matchup. Kostyuk and Gracheva have played well all week, but who will step up most when it matters most?

WTA Austin Final Prediction

Marta Kostyuk vs Varvara Gracheva

Head-to-Head: Kostyuk 3-2 Gracheva

Kostyuk and Gracheva have squared off five times, with Kostyuk holding the 3-2 head-to-head advantage. Their most recent meeting came in Chicago in 2021 as Gracheva outlasted Kostyuk 6-7, 6-3, 6-4. I expect another very competitive encounter with this 250 title on the line.

Kostyuk’s road to the ATX Open final features victories over Dalma Galfi, Madison Brengle, Anna-Lena Friedsam, and Danielle Collins. She has dropped just one set this week while spending six hours and 21 minutes on court. Gracheva’s path to the final features wins over Magda Linette, Anna Blinkova, Sloane Stephens, and Katie Volynets. She has dropped two sets this week and has spent eight hours and 56 minutes on court. Fatigue from Gracheva may be something to watch as this match progresses.

I do not believe much separates these two in their current form. Gracheva has the better wins this week (Linette, Stephens), but Kostyuk is ranked 36 spots higher than her opponent and holds a 14-6 record this season. Kostyuk is 20 years old but has been playing tour-level matches since 2018. Her early career has culminated with this moment, and I do not believe she will squander it.

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The difference in this match will be the Kostyuk backhand. Both women feature consistent and strong forehands, but the 20-year-old can do damage with her two-handed backhand. If that shot down the line is working, she can keep Gracheva on her back foot all match long. Kostyuk is ready to take the next step in her career, which will come when she raises her first WTA singles title in the capital of Texas.
Prediction: Kostyuk in 2

Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports