ATP Marseille Final Prediction

Hubert Hurkacz vs Benjamin Bonzi

Head-to-head: Hurkacz 1-0 Bonzi

Hurkacz was in some trouble in his first two matches at the ATP Marseille Open, particularly against Mikael Ymer. After being the better player for most of the deciding set, the Swede missed a very makeable second serve return on match point though and let the Pole back into it. Hurkacz’s performance against Alexander Bublik in the semifinals was much stronger and he was just blasting aces all over the place (22 in 11 service games plus a tiebreak).

Bonzi has enjoyed a cleaner run, only dropping one tiebreak set to Maxime Cressy. In the quarterfinals, he managed to stop Alex de Minaur in very convincing fashion, despite losing to the Australian on three previous occasions since September last year. On Saturday, he was able to fend off the 18-year-old prodigy Arthur Fils, delaying his top 100 debut for at least one more week.

Hurkacz defeated Bonzi at a Challenger in Brest five years ago, but it’s not really relevant for their match on Sunday as the Frenchman didn’t have his big breakthrough until 2021. Bonzi played his maiden ATP Tour final in Pune last month and looked considerably tense while losing to Tallon Griekspoor. The last service game of his match against Fils was also a mess and he brought it all upon himself. This is basically a home event for him as the comes from the nearby city of Nimes and trains in Marseille throughout the year. That could both relieve the pressure, or add to it.

Even though he’s not exactly known for an iron-clad mental game, Hurkacz’s experience should help him handle the situation a bit better. Bonzi has a strong first serve himself, but the Pole’s incredible delivery is stronger and also something that could really be the deciding factor under pressure, when free points are even more important than usual. After playing Riedi and Bublik already at the ATP Marseille Open, Hurkacz should be well-prepared to handle Bonzi’s flat ball-striking.