2023 ATP Predictions: the Grand Slams and ATP Finals

Novak Djokovic Australian Open

Following my popular article last year, I will once again be giving my ATP predictions for the upcoming 2023 season. In this article, I shall be giving my predictions on the biggest tournaments of the year (the Grand Slams and ATP Finals). So without further ado here are my predictions. What do you think will happen?

Australian Open  

2022 Final: (6) Rafael Nadal d. (2) Daniil Medvedev 2-6, 6–7(5–7), 6-4, 6-4, 7-5

Predicted Champion: Novak Djokovic

I believe Djokovic would’ve won last year’s tournament, had he not been deported by the Australian government for political points. As a result Nadal capitalized, but I don’t have the defending amongst my winner contenders for 2023 as excluding the French Open, he has never successfully defended a Grand Slam title.

After a strong end to 2022 where Djokovic went undefeated to win the ATP Finals and the fact he has a record nine Australian Open titles, I predict he will reestablish dominance down under and reclaim the Australian Open in 2023. If Djokovic is not victorious, Medvedev, runner-up at eh Australian Open for the last two editions, would be my next choice to triumph in Melbourne.

French Open

2022 Final: (5) Rafael Nadal d. (8) Casper Ruud 6–3, 6–3, 6–0

Predicted Champion: Rafael Nadal

Bet against the “King of Clay” winning the French Open at your peril! No matter how many injury issues Nadal seems to have, they almost always seem to disappear once he plays on the courts at Roland Garros. He has won the French Open a record 14 times and I expect it to be 15 next year.

If for any reason Nadal does not win, I would not expect last year’s finalist Ruud to win as he made the final with a very favourable draw and his game is more suited to winning tournaments at ATP 250 level (as evidenced by him having no titles above this level). I also don’t have Novak Djokovic amongst my winner contenders as no ATP player has won at least three of each Grand Slam.

Therefore, my second choice would be Carlos Alcaraz, who now has the experience of winning a Grand Slam and also won three titles on clay (ATP 500 Rio, ATP 500 Barcelona and ATP 1000 Madrid) in 2022.

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2022 Final: (1) Novak Djokovic d. Nick Kyrgios 4–6, 6–3, 6–4, 7–6(7–3)

Predicted Champion: Novak Djokovic< Djokovic is the four-time defending champion at Wimbledon and hasn’t lost a match there since 2017. Therefore, I am predicting him to win Wimbledon in 2023 to tie Roger Federer’s record go eight Wimbledon titles.

If Djokovic doesn’t win Wimbledon, I do not know who would win instead – I think we would end up with a chaotic WTA-style tournament with someone like last year’s finalist Kyrgios ending up victorious! If Kyrgios were to win Wimbledon it would be a travesty for most tennis purists, but triumph for the mainstream media and casuals who seem to prefer “beef” and controversy over the actual sport.

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US Open

2022 Final: (3) Carlos Alcaraz d. (5) Casper Ruud 6–4, 2–6, 7–6(7–1), 6–3

Predicted Champion: Daniil Medvedev

Logic would suggest that Novak Djokovic, the greatest (hard court) player of all time should be my pick for the US Open but unfortunately I don’t see it happening. He was unfairly prohibited from entering the USA in 2022 and I am not sure if the situation will change in 2023.

Even if he is allowed to take part, bad circumstances seem to fall upon him in New York–injury in 2019, disqualification in 2020, the pressure of the calendar slam in 2021. It is a travesty that a player of  Djokovic’s hard-court calibre only has three US Open titles to his name as I believe people will use it as leverage to claim Rafael Nadal (who has four US Open titles) is the greatest of all time.

Speaking of Nadal, I also do not have him amongst my winner contenders as I have him winning the French Open and the Spaniard has never won multiple Grand Slam titles in consecutive seasons. I also have doubts over the 2022 champion Alcaraz as we have yet to see if he can successfully defend a title (although he has only had one chance so far) and I don’t see this year’s finalist Ruud amongst the winner contenders for reasons previously mentioned.

By process of elimination, I am left with Medvedev as my predicted champion. The Russian won the title in 2021 and after a disappointing 2022, will be playing in the 2023 with no pressure of being the top seed or defending champion. If he falters, I think the draw will end up very wide open with a first-time Grand Slam champion!

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ATP Finals

2022 Final: (7) Novak Djokovic d. (3) Casper Ruud 7–5, 6–3

Predicted Champion: Carlos Alcaraz

As a winner of five singles titles in 2022, I have gone with Alcaraz to win the ATP Finals in 2023. Alcaraz did not get to take part in the 2022 ATP Finals due to injury but having won the Next Generation ATP Finals in 2021, it is clear he has pedigree on indoor courts.

As the format is best-of-three sets outside the Grand Slams, I can see Ruud reaching the final again but not winning the title. Instead my second choice to win would be Djokovic, the player who beat Ruud in this year’s final. I have doubts over Djokovic’s motivation outside the Grand Slams and feel he was only focused this year to prove a point after being forbidden from two Grand Slams in 2022.

Nevertheless, he also won five singles titles in 2022 and now has a record-equalling six ATP Finals titles! However, given Alcaraz is 16 years junior to Djokovic, I believe the World No.1 will have have more energy in the tank come November and emerge victorious in Turin.

What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments!

Main Photo from Getty.