It’s going to be a rather unexpected final at the 2022 Rolex Paris Masters. Not due to Novak Djokovic, but more thanks to Holger Rune, who’s been on an absolute tear for the past month or so. Can the 19-year-old Dane pull off the upset to grab his maiden ATP 1000 title?
Novak Djokovic vs Holger Rune
Head-to-head: Djokovic 1-0
Holger Rune is on an incredible hot streak right now, making the final in his last four ATP Tour events. The Dane has recently started working even more closely with Patrick Mouratoglou after being a member of his Academy for years. It’s unclear whether that’s the reason for the positive change, but the 19-year-old has massively improved his serve this past month, turning it into a huge weapon in the indoor swing. The added confidence is making him even more aggressive and on top of that, overplaying hasn’t caused him to suffer physical issues like many times in the past yet.
Since July, Novak Djokovic has only lost to Felix Auger-Aliassime at Laver Cup. He missed plenty of events this year due to his vaccination status, which has probably made him even more hungry and motivated whenever he was able to show up on court. Excluding the aforementioned team competition, he’s won his past three events (Wimbledon, Tel Aviv, Astana). However, the 21-time Grand Slam champion finally showed some vulnerability against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Paris semifinals. It got messy after a dominant opening set, but he escaped with the victory in the deciding set tie-break.
Djokovic and Rune played just once before as the Serbian clinched the win at the 2021 US Open. The Dane couldn’t maintain the required intensity and spent the last two sets cramping heavily. If it happens this time, it will be more due to his long last couple of weeks, rather than being physically unable to compete with Djokovic.
Stylistically, Rune probably doesn’t matchup too well with the former World No. 1. If Djokovic can serve like he’s been doing most of the indoor season, he’ll be able to match him on shorter points won and take advantage of the edge in the longer baseline rallies. Rune will need to play out of his skin to find the win and with tired legs, that’s not going to come easy. Needless to say, he’s also the one who hasn’t been at this stage a billion times before and might feel the pressure more.
Prediction: Djokovic in 3
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