It promises to be an entertaining third day at the ATP Florence Open with five intriguing matches on the schedule and the Italian #2 amongst those in action. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the schedule. But who will advance?
ATP Florence Day 3 Predictions
Mackenzie McDonald vs Jenson Brooksby
Head-to-head: Brooksby 2-0 McDonald
Jenson Brooksby has already defeated Mackenzie McDonald twice this year, taking him out in San Diego and Atlanta. Which one of the Americans will enjoy the indoor conditions more? Probably also Brooksby, who has an excellent record under a roof, including making the final in Dallas in February. He looks to the better player too, but he’s definitely a player McDonald can beat if the 27-year-old has a great day at the office. Still, Brooksby looks the likelier winner, even if he has to work for it.
Prediction: Brooksby in 3
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Aslan Karatsev vs Mikael Ymer
Head-to-head: Ymer 2-0 Karatsev
These two have recently faced each other in a tight clash at Washington. It’s a very classic offense versus defense matchup with Aslan Karatsev having to limit his errors, while still using his monstrous power and timing on the rise to try to bully Mikael Ymer. Unfortunately, his form over the last few months has been abysmal and he’ll need to play much better than he has been to take the win here. It’s not impossible, but it would be a surprise to see him get the better of the Swede.
Prediction: Ymer in 3
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Maxime Cressy vs J.J. Wolf
Head-to-head: Cressy 1-0 Wolf
It feels like anything can happen in this one. Somewhat surprisingly, J.J. Wolf dropped the opening set against Francesco Maestrelli in the opening round, but later steadied himself and even started returning with more margin, eventually recording a 4-6 6-2 6-1 win. Against the serve-and-volleying Maxime Cressy, he’ll have to go bigger to avoid giving his countryman easy volleys at the net. Doing that with enough consistency could be a struggle, which should give the fourth seed enough of an edge to reach the last eight.
Prediction: Cressy in 3
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Corentin Moutet vs Alexander Bublik
Head-to-head: Bublik 1-0 Moutet
Two players who are often their worst enemy on the court, struggling to maintain concentration required to win matches consistently at this level. They’re both really talented though and this should be a fun clash with plenty of brilliant shotmaking. Indoors though it’s definitely Alexander Bublik who has the advantage. He’s got a lot more reliable point-winning shots and the serve difference should prove decisive.
Prediction: Bublik in 2
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Matteo Berrettini vs Roberto Carballes Baena
Head-to-head: Berrettini 1-0 Carballes Baena
Roberto Carballes Baena has really improved his serve and attacking options in general this year which showed in his opening win over Daniel Elahi Galan. Unfortunately, the Spaniard also looks to be (slowly) suffering from the sheer volume of matches he’s played so far in 2022 (73 to Matteo Berrettini’s 39). His improvement might help him keep it close for a while, but on an indoor hard court the devastating power of the Italian’s serve and forehand combo will surely be too much for Carballes Baena to handle.
Prediction: Berrettini in 2
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