Day three at the ATP Bastad Open sees the the top seeds join the action and, as always, we here at LWOT are offering our predictions for every match on the schedule. But who will book their place in the quarterfinals?
ATP Bastad Day 3 Predictions
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Albert Ramos Vinolas
Head-to-head: Carreno Busta 3-1 Ramos Vinolas
This is the best matchup of the day, between two veteran clay courters and countrymen. Neither is having an above average season, but both are competent, and they have off-setting styles. Pablo Carreno Busta boasts a solid, largely defensive game, but he is capable of stepping in and dictating, with his backhand down the line a real weapon. Albert Ramos Vinolas, meanwhile, is a wily and intelligent defender. All three of their previous matches on clay resulted in Carreno Busta wins, but each went to three sets, including two third set tiebreaks. In other words, it should be close, but Carreno Busta has the edge.
Prediction: Carreno Busta in 3
Casper Ruud vs Francisco Cerundolo
Head-to-head: Ruud 1-0 Cerundolo
Casper Ruud is hard to beat in clay 250s, although that is what one would expect from the #5 player in the world and recent French Open runner-up. Francisco Cerundolo had a very easy first-round match, beating Pedro Sousa of Portugal, and could not have faced a greater rise in level of difficulty unless he were facing Rafael Nadal or maybe Carlos Alcaraz. Ruud should absorb the Argentine’s power and simply outhit him, and it is hard to see don’t see Cerundolo having developed the tactics (a la Nadal in the French Open final) to neutralize Ruud’s solid defense and relentless power.
Prediction: Ruud in 2
Diego Schwartzman vs Elias Ymer
Head-to-head: Schwartzman 2-0 Ymer
Elias, the older Ymer brother has spent most of the year on the Challenger tour, and after dispatching Daniel Altmaier, his reward is to face a tournament favourite in Diego Schwartzman. The Argentine has gone is 20-8 on clay this year, and should be able to control this match, although Ymer is a decent clay courter at the Challenger level. Expect Schwartzman to be able to limit openings for Ymer with his strong defense, and dictate rallies with his forehand. Barring unforeseen circumstances (Schwartzman can be a little unpredictable), this one should be straightforward.
Prediction: Schwartzman in 2
Aslan Karatsev vs Hugo Gaston
Head-to-head: Gaston 1-0 Karatsev
Aslan Karatsev is hard to predict at the moment. He was 1-6 on clay entering this tournament, and well below .500 in wins this year, but just scored a good win over Lorenzo Sonego. One match isn’t a change of direction, but he faces a beatable opponent in Hugo Gaston, who hasn’t had quite the season his 2021 rise predicted. Their previous meeting came in at a Challenger in Pau two years ago, when both were significantly less accomplished, but Gaston gets credit for it, as well as credit for just moving past an opponent (Nikoloz Basilashvili) who is very similar to Karatsev in style. This one favours the Frenchman, but expect a close contest.
Prediction: Gaston in 3
Main photo from Getty Images
