Saturday’s championship match at the WTA 1000 level Mutua Madrid Open sees #8 seed Ons Jabeur come up against #12 seed Jessica Pegula. Both players will be playing for the biggest tile of their respect careers. Jabeur and Pegula each have one WTA singles title to their names. Pegula won a 250 level event in Washington in 2019, whilst Jabeur won her only title in at the 250 level event in Birmingham last year. Clearly this is a huge opportunity for both, who will step it up and emerge victorious?
WTA Madrid Final Prediction
Ons Jabeur vs Jessica Pegula
H2H: 2-2.
Ons Jabeur has cruised through her last couple of matches in Madrid. An impressive 6-3 6-2 win over two-time former champion Simona Halep was followed by a 6-2 6-3 win over Ekaterina Alexandrova. Jessica Pegula has been equally dominant in her last few matches with a 6-4 6-2 quarterfinal win over Sara Sorribes Tormo and a 6-3 6-4 semifinal victory over Jil Teichmann. Both players overcame early round scares: Jabeur was pushed to three sets by Varvara Gracheva in the second round, whilst Pegula saved a match point as she came from 2-5 down to defeat Camila Giorgi.
Ons Jabeur has historically struggled in finals and other big matches. Jabeur owns a 1-4 record in WTA finals, and the Tunisian won the first set in three of the four finals that she lost. Meanwhile, Pegula owns a 1-2 record in WTA finals. Neither player can confidently claim to be comfortable in these types of situations, so it will be interesting to see who deals with the pressure better.
I believe Jabeur is the better player with greater skill and variety to her game. However, I can’t trust Jabeur in a final, especially not in this matchup where she is the favorite at a big event against a very solid opponent. I’m sensing an upset here; Pegula is the type of opponent that could trouble Jabeur in this spot. Pegula’s game is extremely solid. Jabeur will need to be very efficient and I’m not liking her chances of executing her complicated game under great pressure.
Prediction: Pegula in 3
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