With 12 matches on the slate, and one of the greatest players the game has seen amongst those in action, expect plenty of exciting tennis on day four at the ATP Madrid Open. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match, including Lucas Pouille vs Stefanos Tsitsipas and Marin Cilic vs Alexander Zverev. But who will reach the third round?
ATP Madrid Day 4 Predictions
Dan Evans vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Head-to-head: first meeting
Two veterans in Dan Evans and Roberto Bautista Agut will square off for the first time in the second round on day four in Madrid. Dan Evans came into this event having won just one of his last seven matches. His straight-set victory over Federico Delbonis in the first round was accordingly much-needed. Roberto Bautista Agut, meanwhile, handled Jenson Brooksby with ease, winning 6-0 6-2 in the first round. Both players should be feeling good about their previous result ahead of this bout. Evans surely cannot play as poorly as he did over the past two months, but facing a Spaniard in Madrid is a tough task. Expect the 2014 semifinalist Bautista Agut to find a way to win this one comfortably enough.
Prediction: Bautista Agut in 2
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Rafael Nadal vs Miomir Kecmanovic
Head-to-head: Nadal 1-0 Kecmanovic
Five-time ATP Madrid Open champion Rafael Nadal returns to the court for the first time since Indian Wells after taking the last six weeks off due to a rib injury. The 21-time Grand Slam champion has posted a 21-1 record so far this season and is making his clay-court season debut. Miomir Kecmanovic has also been having a great season, with the Serbian currently sitting 18th in the Race to Turin. The young Serbian defeated Alexander Bublik in straight sets in the first round and holds a 13-5 record on the clay this season. It would be foolish to pick against Nadal here, however, even Kecmanovic is certainly not the easiest matchup to find your legs back on the tour. The Serbian may put a seed of doubt in Rafa’s mind, but do not expect it to be enough.
Prediction: Nadal in 3
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Sebastian Korda vs Lorenzo Musetti
Head-to-head: Korda 1-1 Musetti
NextGen stars Sebastian Korda and Lorenzo Musetti will square off for the first time since their meeting at the 2021 NextGen Finals. Both players have enjoyed success during the 2022 clay season and are looking to make their first round of 16 appearance here in Madrid. Korda is 6-3 on the clay this season having picked up wins over Carlos Alcaraz, Auger-Aliassime, and Reilly Opelka. Musetti, meanwhile, boasts a 63.9% career winning percentage on the surface, over 20 points higher than on hard court and grass. This match should be a battle. Expect it to go the distance, but for the American’s powerful first serve to ultimately be the difference.
Prediction: Korda in 3
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Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Cristian Garin
Head-to-head: Garin 2-1 Auger-Aliassime
Eighth seed Felix Auger-Aliassime is looking to find his footing on the clay having gone an indifferent 4-4 on the surface this season. His opponent, Cristian Garin, is typically at his best on the terre battue, but had lost his previous three matches before dispatching Frances Tiafoe 6-1 6-3 in the first round. Garin did beat the Canadian in their previous match on clay in Monte Carlo last season, Auger-Aliassime is clearly the more superior player. It is also tough to draw too many positives Garin’s victory over Tiafoe as the American had a very quick turnaround after reaching the final last week in Estoril. Expect this to to finish in a close, two-set victory for Auger-Aliassime.
Prediction: Auger-Aliassime in 2
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