The remainder of the second round matchups will be completed on Sunday at the ATP BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. The seeded players all received byes through the opening round, several of those seeded players look vulnerable in their first matches of the tournament against some very solid opposition. Let’s take a look at some of the best value bets of the day.
ATP Indian Wells Best Bets March 13
(24) Marin Cilic vs. Miomir Kecmanovic
Marin Cilic had a strong Australian summer, but his form cooled off in his last couple of tournaments in the Middle East. Cilic will be in action for the first time since a straight set opening round loss to Jiri Vesely in Dubai three weeks ago. Cilic looks vulnerable in this position against Miomir Kecmanovic, the Serb is in some career best form and has the game to seriously trouble Cilic on a slow hard court.
Kecmanovic is battle hardened having played a heap of tennis of late. A career best fourth round appearance at the Australian Open was followed by back-to-back quarterfinals in Rio and Santiago. Kecmanovic outlasted Liam Broady in a tough opening round test in Indian Wells. With all this tennis behind him, he is locked in. At this stage of their respective career’s, I’d favour Kecmanovic from the back of the court on a slow surface such as the one in Indian Wells. If Kecmanovic has a good serving day and gets enough returns into court I think he has a better than even chance in this matchup.
Miomir Kecmanovic ML – 1.5 units @ +126
(6) Matteo Berrettini vs. (Q) Holger Rune
Holger Rune is having a great week. the Dane came through qualifying with wins over Mitchell Krueger 6-4 3-6 6-3 and Stefan Kozlov 6-4 6-2 before claiming a maiden main draw win at a masters 1000 level event with a 6-3 6-2 win over Ugo Humber. The slow, gritty surface in Indian Wells suits Rune’s game very nicely, that and confidence on his side gives him a decent chance at pulling off the upset in the second round against a seemingly vulnerable Matteo Berrettini.
Berrettini is playing for the first time since retiring injured in his Acapulco opener with an abdominal injury. Conditioning is therefore a question mark for the Italian heading into this clash. It should also be noted that Berrettini just split his girlfriend Ajla Tomljanovic, that is unlikely to be having a good impact on him in general. Rune will challenge Berrettini from the back of the court in slow conditions. Enough reasons to suggest there is some value with the Dane who should at least make this very competitive.
Holger Rune ML – 0.5 units @ +236
Holger Rune +1.5 set handicap – 0.5 units @ -116
(31) Alexander Bublik vs. (wc) Andy Murray
Andy Murray enters this clash on a high after a comeback opening round win over Taro Daniel 1-6 6-2 6-4, his 700th ATP tour level victory. Murray comes up against an opponent he has never dropped a set against. Murray defeated Bublik 6-1 6-4 6-2 at Wimbledon in 2017 and more recently he secured a 7-6 6-4 win in Rotterdam earlier this year.
This isn’t a good matchup for Bublik; the odds don’t reflect that enough in my opinion. I’d rate Murray as a stronger favourite, especially on a slow hard court such as the ones in Indian Wells. Bublik’s biggest weapon is his serve, Murray counteracts that with one of the best returns of serve, a task that will be made easier for Murray in these conditions. Murray has a good record in this matchup for a reason, he has similarly strong record against other big servers.
Andy Murray ML – 2.5 units @ -147
Recommended selections are based on a 5 unit betting system where 1 unit is a minimum stake, and 5 units is the maximum stake.
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Main Photo from Getty.