Sunday at the 2022 BNP ATP Paribas Open in Indian Wells will feature all the remaining second-round matches. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the schedule, including Alexander Bublik vs Andy Murray, Botic van de Zandschulp vs Felix Auger-Aliassime and Tommy Paul vs Alexander Zverev. But who will book their place in the third round?
ATP Indian Wells Day 4 Predictions
Sam Querrey vs John Isner
Head-to-head: Querrey 5-4 Isner
One of their nine head-to-head meetings came at Indian Wells twelve years ago with John Isner winning 7-6 6-4 in the third round. Sam Querrey snapped a ten-match losing streak by defeating Tallon Griekspoor on Friday and while he’s declined more rapidly than his older compatriot, you can never count out a player with the set of weapons he possesses. This rivalry has always been about a few points here or there, including 11 tie-breakers (more than one per match). In key moments, the one who’s regularly winning matches on the tour should be able to handle the nerves better. Slower conditions give a slight advantage to Isner too, helping his problematic baseline game.
Prediction: Isner in 3
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Brandon Nakashima vs Frances Tiafoe
Head-to-head: Tiafoe 2-0 Nakashima
Another all-American matchup that looks really tight on paper. Frances Tiafoe has so far failed to follow up on his stellar 2021 campaign, winning just one match in three tournaments (barely scraping by Marco Trungelliti at the Australian Open). Brandon Nakashima hasn’t been perfect either, but is at least competing regularly, as opposed to the 24-year-old who hasn’t touched the match court since January. Both previous matches between them came down to the wire with the younger of the Americans coming up just short. As Tiafoe’s out of form now and Nakashima already had a good performance this week (and the chance to get used to the conditions), this looks like a great opportunity for the 21-year-old to grab a win in this rivalry.
Prediction: Nakashima in 3
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Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jaume Munar
Head-to-head: Carreno Busta 1-0 Munar
Jaume Munar is yet to lose a set in three matches here, defeating two exciting, but ultimately a little weaponless junior prospects (Juncheng Shang and Bruno Kuzuhara) and Aleksandar Vukic. The Spaniard faces a much tougher task here though, playing his compatriot Pablo Carreno Busta, seeded 16th for the event. Munar lost to him at Marbella last year (on clay), at some points playing perhaps the best he’s ever had. In slow conditions, this match should contain a number of extended rallies but Carreno Busta’s forehand will be by far the biggest weapon on the court and its pace should outweigh his opponent’s defensive prowess.
Prediction: Carreno Busta in 2
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Matteo Berrettini vs Holger Rune
Head-to-head: first meeting
This could be a matchup we’ll see plenty of in the future. Matteo Berrettini retired a set up against Tommy Paul in Acapulco, citing some abdominal issues. There are also rumours about him breaking up with his girlfriend, Ajla Tomljanovic, which could influence his mental sharpness. Holger Rune, meanwhile, is among the most talented players of his generation, racking up four Challenger titles last year despite being just 18. The Dane hasn’t had a particularly great start to the season (3-7 before Indian Wells), but picked up plenty of steam winning three matches here already. It’s a very tough ask as it’s only the second time Rune faces a top 10 player. However, with the uncertainty regarding Berrettini’s health and potential issues in private life, the upset is certainly not unthinkable.
Prediction: Rune in 3
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