It’s another busy day in the Californian desert. Women’s second round action commences at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, whilst first round matchups conclude on the men’s side. Overall, there are 32 singles matches on the schedule. There isn’t too much standing out, it’s best to be cautious at this stage of the tournament. Let’s take a look at some of the best betting options of the day.
Indian Wells Best Bets March 11
(25) Madison Keys vs. Misaki Doi
The best value underdog of the day has to be Misaki Doi in my opinion. Madison Keys is the type of player that can lose to just about anyone on a bad day; her recent poor form suggests a bad day isn’t out of the question here and Misaki Doi is playing well enough to take advantage.
Madison Keys was one of the form players on tour to start the year, but her form has cooled off significantly of late. Keys suffered back-to-back opening round exits in Mexico, beaten by Harmony Tan and Petra Martic and therefore arrives in Indian Wells on a three match losing streak.
Misaki Doi has momentum on her side after a 0-6 6-4 6-3 win over Anastasia Potapova in the first round, the type of comeback win that can build confidence. Doi has beaten Keys in the past, a three set victory in Madrid in 2017. The courts in Indian Wells suit the game of Doi, her slow bouncy surface aids Doi’s heavy forehand and will allow her to neutralize the power of Keys. Doi should at least be very competitive in one set, so take the total games over to cover the money line play.
Misaki Doi ML – 0.5 units @ +535
Total Games over 18.5 – 0.5 units @ -135
Ugo Humbert vs. (Q) Holger Rune
Ugo Humbert has lost 9 of his last 11 matches but still comes into his opening round match with Holger Rune as a slight favourite. I’m happy to fade the Frenchman in this situation, especially when considering Rune is used to the unique conditions in Indian Wells having come through qualifying.
Rune defeated Mitchell Krueger 6-4 3-6 6-3 and Stefan Kozlov 6-4 6-2 to reach the main draw, not the toughest opponents but decent wins, nonetheless. Rune is a player on the rise, a feisty competitor who won’t make life easy for Humbert.
Not the greatest value play, as Humbert is definitely the better player. But, worth a small play given Humbert’s terrible form, Rune seems slightly more likely to come through this clash.
Holger Rune ML – 1 unit @ +104
(22) Belinda Bencic vs. Kaia Kanepi
I always like Belinda Bencic in these types of matchups. Bencic is one of the best counter-punchers on tour and should be a stronger favourite in her second round clash with Kaia Kanepi in my opinion.
I can see why Bencic isn’t a stronger favorite on this occasion; it’s based on recent form. Kanepi’s form is strong, having reached the quarterfinals at the Australian Open in January, but that was a while ago and she isn’t the type of player to maintain good form for long. Bencic hasn’t made the best start to the season, but she will come good eventually.
The slower surface in Indian Wells will help Bencic in this matchup as she will be able to get into more extended rallies where she will have the edge. Kanepi will need to play an extremely clean match to get past Bencic in these conditions, she’s capable but that doesn’t seem very likely to me, less likely than the odds suggest.
Belinda Bencic ML – 1.5 units @ -139
Recommended selections are based on a 5 unit betting system where 1 unit is a minimum stake, and 5 units is the maximum stake.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes only. LWOS makes no guarantees that the picks will win. Only gamble where it is legal to do so, and only amounts you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Main Photo from Getty.