The remainder of the WTA first round matches will be completed on Thursday at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, whilst ATP first round matches commence. The conditions in Indian Wells are unique; slow courts and thin desert air are a combination for upsets to occur. Let’s take a look at some of Thursday’s matches to find some of those potential upsets.
Indian Wells Best Bets March 10
Nuria Parrizas-Diaz vs Shelby Rogers
Nuria Parrizas-Diaz arrives in Indian Wells on a high. The Spaniard is sitting at a career high ranking of #45 having reached a maiden tour level semifinal last week in Monterrey. On the other hand, Shelby Rogers is on a four-match losing streak dating back to the first week of the year and is under serious pressure at this event to defend quarterfinalist points from last year.
Parrizas-Diaz is appealing as a healthy underdog given the vastly contrasting form between the pair. A rock-solid Parrizas-Diaz on a slow surface presents a serious challenge for Rogers in her first match of the tournament, her first match in over a couple of weeks. I see the value with the Spaniard.
Recommended Selections:
Nuria Parrizas-Diaz ML – 1 unit @ +162
Sloane Stephens vs Naomi Osaka
Sloane Stephens arrives in Indian Wells on a high having won her seventh WTA title in Guadalajara a few weeks ago, her first title in almost four years. Naomi Osaka will be competing for the first time since a shock third round loss at the Australian Open to Amanda Anisimova. There’s reason to believe Stephens is the smart playing in this matchup.
There are multiple factors working in the American’s favour. Firstly, the conditions. Granted Osaka is a former champion in Indian Wells, but I still think the conditions favour Stephens in this matchup. The surface is notoriously slow, that gives Stephens a much greater opportunity to play her game in this particular matchup. Osaka might struggle to hit through Stephens, the longer the rally, the better for Stephens. Form is also clearly on Stephens’ side, having just won a title last week, albeit at a lower, it’s still winning form. Osaka is bound to be rusty and lacking confidence, that’s a problem in these tricky conditions against a very solid and experienced opponent.
Recommended Selections:
Sloane Stephens ML – 1 unit @ +228
Sebastian Baez vs Nick Kyrgios
I was surprised by the odds in this matchup, I don’t think Kyrgios deserves to be such a strong favourite. Kyrios has won two hard courts matches in the last 12 months, has barely played any tournaments and is clearly very vulnerable heading into this match. Baez had played a heap of tennis over the last couple of months, highlighted by a run to the final in Santiago on clay. The vast, vast majority of the Argentine’s success has been on clay, including a six challenger titles last season, but he still has a great chance in this matchup in these circumstances.
I believe Baez has the confidence and ability to exploit the fragility in the Kyrgios game. Baez is match tough, a disciplined competitor coming off a strong South American clay court swing. Kyrgios is a part-time player and will be in trouble if he doesn’t fire down a heap of aces in this matchup on a slow surface. Baez should have the edge from the back of the court. The match being played at night further helps Baez, the conditions will be slower and heavier, if he can return enough serves and remain solid from the back of the court he will have a great chance to pull off the upset win.
Recommended selections:
Sebastian Baez ML – 2 units @ +148
Recommended selections are based on a 5 unit betting system where 1 unit is a minimum stake, and 5 units is the maximum stake.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes only. LWOS makes no guarantees that the picks will win. Only gamble where it is legal to do so, and only amounts you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Main Photo from Getty.
