The business end of the tournament has arrived at the WTA Monterrey Open in Mexico. The finalists will be decided on Saturday where a pair of interesting semifinal matchups will take place. Both semifinals look like intriguing matches on paper and, as always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for both matches. But who will advance to the final?
WTA Monterrey Semifinal Predictions
Camila Osorio vs Nuria Parrizas-Diaz
Head-to-head: Osorio 1-0 Parrizas-Diaz
Camila Osorio and Nuria Parrizas-Diaz each claimed dramatic quarterfinal victories on Friday. Osorio overcame a double break deficit in the deciding set to defeat the top seeded Elina Svitolina 1-6 7-5 7-6. Meanwhile, Parrizas-Diaz outlasted the fourth seeded Sara Sorribes Tormo 6-3 1-6 6-4 in a match that lasted just over three hours. Both players were left a little worse for wear after those tough victories, recovering on a short turnaround will be challenging.
Osorio defeated Parrizas-Diaz 3-6 6-3 6-2 in the final round of qualifying at Wimbledon last year in the only previous meeting between the pair. Osorio has more experience at this stage of WTA tour level events. Parrizas-Diaz will be competing in her first semifinal at this level, it’s been a long time coming for the 30-year-old. Meanwhile, Osorio made four WTA tour level semifinals in 2021, which included a title run in Bogota.
Give the slight edge to the Colombian here for a couple of reasons. Osorio is more talented and has more experience at this level. Parrizas-Diaz played an especially physical quarterfinal to get past Sorribes Tormo in three hours, that probably leaves Osorio in better physical shape heading into this match. Osorio has more versatility to her game; she can win this match in a couple of different ways.
Prediction: Osorio in 3
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Leylah Fernandez vs Beatriz Haddad Maia
Head-to-head: first meeting
Leylah Fernandez hasn’t had things all her own way in her last couple of matches in Monterrey. The Canadian still managed to find a way. A 6-1 4-6 7-6 second round win over Zheng Qinwen was especially dicey, a 7-6 6-4 quarterfinal win over Qiang Wang also had its challenges after falling a double break down early in the match. Beatriz Haddad Maia, meanwhile, came through an epic to reach her first WTA tour level semifinal since Bogota in 2019.
The Brazilian came from a set and a break down, saving three match points in a final set tiebreaker to defeat Marie Bouzkova 4-6 6-4 7-6 in a match lasting three hours and 22 minutes. Both players are likely to have some physical issues heading into this match. Haddad Maia is coming off a gruelling three hour plus match, whilst Fernandez finished her quarterfinal match at about 2:30AM local time. That doesn’t leave much time for Fernandez to rest and recover, while Haddad Maia is likely to be sore after such a long match.
All things being equal Fernandez is the obvious pick here. The conditions in Monterrey suit Fernandez perfectly, there’s a reason she has now won eight consecutive matches at this event. Fernandez is so tough to beat from the back of the court in these conditions. It would be a heroic effort from Haddad Maia to knock off Fernandez with less than 24 hours to recover from one of the biggest and toughest wins of her career. Don’t expect it to happen.
Prediction: Fernandez in 2
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