Australian Open Semifinal Predictions Including Rafael Nadal vs Matteo Berrettini

Rafael Nadal in action at the ATP Melbourne Summer Set.
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We are set for a blockbuster semifinal day at the Australian Open. Novak Djokovic may have missed the tournament, but we still have both Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev pushing towards a rematch of the 2019 US Open final. Can anyone stop them? Let’s look at the matches. Predicting these matches are Harsh Bhoot, Anish Joshi, Andy Watson, Jakub Bobro, Jack Edward, and Damian Kust. Who do you think will win?

Australian Open Semifinal Predictions

Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Anish:
Just two months ago, Stefanos Tsitsipas had pulled out of a second consecutive tournament due to a problematic elbow. The issue had practically destroyed his game, bringing in bad results, and ultimately damaging his confidence. Fast forward to right now, he finds himself in a Grand Slam semifinal. In his quarterfinal match, he faced the Italian rising star Jannik Sinner. And considering the kind of form Sinner was in, the way he dominated the match right to the end is commendable. Tsitsipas has enjoyed a perfect record in Grand Slam quarterfinals, and is yet to lose the match at that. His semifinal record is not that great though, with only one win at the Roland Garros. He’ll be hoping to go one step further from last year, when he lost in the semifinal to the same opponent. Daniil Medvedev grinded out a very tough win against his frequent victim Felix Auger-Aliassime. The pair had met twice in the past few months before this match-up, and Aliassime had received a drubbing each time. It looked as though the fortunes were about to change with this match, and Auger-Aliassime raced to a two-set lead in an hour and 40 minutes. Medvedev was not done yet though. He showed superb resilience in the next three sets, saving eight breakpoints in those sets alone. He also fared very well in the return points won. Clutch play has become a vital and very important facet of Medvedev’s game. The difference between him and the other next gen? He plays like a champion.
Prediction: Medvedev in 4

Andy:
The Greek looked at his very best against Jannik Sinner. He has been below par for most of the tournament but Tsitsipas was beginning to find something against Taylor Fritz and then against Sinner he was simply awesome, especially on serve. Medvedev was pushed all the way by Felix Auger-Aliassime but he refused to lose, despite facing match point. The Russian is capable of not missing when it counts but also being aggressive at the right times. Tsitsipas has never beaten Medvedev in a hard court match, but has won twice in their last three matches. It’s a difficult one to call but in the clutch moments I think Medvedev probably has the better mentality to deal with it.
Prediction: Medvedev in 5

Jack:
Tsitsipas was miles better than any of us were expecting. Sure, he was capable of playing great tennis recovering from elbow surgery but I certainly wasn’t expecting him to reach the level of his life, his forehand and serve turning the ball to gold on every shot. Though that serve would not have the same impact against Daniil Medvedev, I honestly think Tsitsipas could find a way through the wall from the back of the court hitting the ball like that. I’m going to back the percentages but over four very tight sets.
Prediction: Medvedev in 4

Harsh:
Before their respective quarterfinal matches, Medvedev would’ve entered as a favourite on this surface and on the basis of their past meetings. But after Tsitsipas blew away Sinner and Medvedev almost losing, the match becomes a lot closer. Expect Medvedev to be off his rhythm again and if Tsitsipas can keep his aggression like he did against Sinner, the Greek has a chance here.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 5

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Jakub:
We’re getting Medvedev vs Tsitsipas IX! Their first meeting back in Miami 2018 became iconic for the words that were exchanged after the match. The Russian dominates the head-to-head 6-2, winning their semifinal match-up here last year in straight sets. Tsitsipas’ level against Sinner and Medvedev having to play almost five hours in the quarterfinals should level the field here and I believe we are looking at a coin flip match. I am picking Medvedev as I believe him to be a more clutch player, able to win a point when it truly matters.
Prediction: Medvedev in 5

Damian:
Before the start of the event (or even after the first four rounds, to be honest), there would have been a very clear favorite of this clash. It’s not so simple now as Stefanos Tsitsipas had one of his best performances in months to straight-set Jannik Sinner. Meanwhile, Daniil Medvedev not only saved a match point against Felix Auger-Aliassime, but also had to grind him down for over four and a half hours. If the Greek can bring his level from the quarterfinals, he’s got a very serious chance here. He needs to have that energy in his footwork again though, which allowed him to hit about 60% of his groundstrokes from the forehand side in the quarterfinals. Both players are incredible at fighting through their issues and neither will go down without a fight. Medvedev is probably the better hard court player, but with their quarterfinal matches going so differently, it looks more and more like a toss-up.
Prediction: Medvedev in 5

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Rafael Nadal vs Matteo Berrettini

Harsh:
Both men had similar quarter final outings but this is the semi final many hoped to see when the revised draw came out. Matchup wise and if both players are healthy, Berrettini is at a disadvantage. Even though the Italian has improved his backhand I don’t think it’s good enough to withstand Nadal’s constant pressure. Expect a great battle with Nadal sticking to his strategy and reaping the rewards.
Prediction: Nadal in 4

Anish:
Nadal outlasted a fired-up Denis Shapovalov in five sets to reach his seventh semifinal at the Australian Open. His match against Shapovalov was starting to look dangerously similar to his last year’s quarterfinal, where he lost to Tsitsipas from the same position. This time however, Nadal wasn’t in a mood to give up, as he took the fifth set from the scruff of the neck, right from the start. With his long-time nemeses Federer and Djokovic absent this year, Nadal probably won’t get a better opportunity at this Slam. On the other side, Berrettini got himself out of a similar situation, recovering in the fifth set, after wasting a 2-0 set lead. This performance wasn’t exactly the best Berrettini could give, but it was enough. However, nothing short of a prime Berrettini will suffice in the semifinal.
Prediction: Nadal in 5

Jack:
With the roof likely to be closed on Thursday, Nadal and Berrettini may be forced to play indoors. This will give Berrettini a bit of a boost on serve and will dampen Nadal’s returning ability and loopiness on the forehand. Despite these advantages, Berrettini has been clinging on to his matches with clutch serve after clutch serve–against Alcaraz he lost the majority of the baseline exchanges. Nadal should be able to come close enough to equalling Alcaraz’s power from the back of the court yet sustain it for enough of the match.
Prediction: Nadal in 5

Damian:
Both players seriously needed that one extra day of rest after draining five-setters in the quarterfinals. Matteo Berrettini’s best moments in this tournament were probably a tiny bit better, although on occasion his backhand couldn’t clear the net at all (vs Gael Monfils in sets three and four) or he was heavily outplayed from the baseline throughout (vs Carlos Alcaraz). The serve and forehand combination that the Italian possesses is just a point-winning machine and if it clicks well enough, he could be the dominant player here. The backhand needs to stay solid though, not allowing Rafael Nadal to expose that liability. The Spaniard probably can’t pressure it as well as Alcaraz could, but has got a number of other qualities that can help him out like the extreme spin or being incredibly clutch. We could be in for another thriller.
Prediction: Berrettini in 5

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Andy:
It is beginning to look more and more like the old Nadal. With both quarterfinals for this pair going 5 sets there may not be much of a physical disadvantage. Nadal, despite his lack of matches, always just seems to find more so despite the fact that he looked fairly spent in the end I am not going to take that into account here. Berrettini looked like he was going to make it easy on himself but in the end he was dragged into a long one vs Monfils. The obvious pattern of play is the Nadal forehand into the Berrettini backhand, but the Italian has improved that shot massively over recent times. Indeed, Berrettini has won his last 8 against left handers. However, Nadal won the big semifinal between them in the US Open in 2019; ironically, that was straight after a victory over Monfils for the Italian. I’m sensing another Nadal victory here. Berrettini’s limitations always seem to be exposed by the very best and although he’s improving he still has a way to go to have a game that can beat the best in the biggest matches.
Prediction: Nadal in 4

Jakub:
Berrettini somehow got wrapped up in a five-set battle with Gael Monfils in the quarterfinals despite dominating the first two sets. It never really looked in doubt for the Italian as Monfils was clearly out of gas in the fifth set. Nadal also got pushed to five from two sets to love up by Denis Shapovalov. The 35-year-old did look like he could be losing the match though as he struggled with abdominal pain throughout the second half of the match. Nadal was the one to end Berrettini’s breakthrough run at US Open 2019, their only previous meeting. If Nadal is healthy for this, I am convinced he will win as the level he has brought at time during his run here is past Berrettini’s capabilities.
Prediction: Nadal in 4

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