Nitto ATP Finals Day 6 Prediction: Andrey Rublev vs Casper Ruud

Andrey Rublev Australian Open

The final spot in the semifinals at the ATP Finals will be up for grabs on Day 6, when Andrey Rublev takes on Casper Ruud on Friday afternoon in Turin. Novak Djokovic will face Alexander Zverev in the semifinals, whilst the winner of the Rublev vs Ruud clash will face Daniil Medvedev for a spit in the championship match. Rublev has won all four previous meetings against Ruud, but the Norwegian continues to improve his game and is better equipped than ever to defeat Russian on a hard court. Will Rublev be too strong, or can Ruud cause a surprise?

ATP Finals Day 6 Prediction

Andrey Rublev vs Casper Ruud

H2H: Rublev 4-0

Andrey Rublev is competing in his second consecutive ATP Finals campaign. The Russian was unable to advance beyond the group stage in 2020 but has a good chance to reach the semifinals in 2021. Rublev kick-started his week in Turin with a commanding 6-4 6-4 victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas. Things didn’t go so well for the Russian in his second group stage match where he was comprehensively defeated by Novak Djokovic, a 3-6 2-6 loss for the 24-year-old.

Casper Ruud’s maiden ATP Finals campaign has been a respectable one thus far. The 22-year-old pushed Novak Djokovic in his opening match of the week, succumbing 6-7 2-6 to the World #1. Things weren’t looked good for the Norwegian when he was dominated by Cameron Norrie in the opening set of his second group stage match, but he rallied impressively to secure an important 1-6 6-3 6-4 victory. It was the first time a Norwegian player has won a match at the ATP Finals.

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Rublev holds a commanding 4-0 H2H record over Ruud. The most recent meeting between the pair was earlier this year on the Monte Carlo clay, Rublev won 6-3 7-5 to advance to the final. Their only previous meeting on a hard court also took place earlier this year, Rublev led 6-2 7-6 at the Australian Open before Ruud retired injured.

Rublev is expected to have the edge in this match-up on a hard court, especially in Turin where the conditions have been quite quick. Ruud is playing solid enough to make this competitive, but ultimately, I suspect Rublev will be too strong. Rublev flatter strokes are more damaging in these conditions and his relatively weaker serve is somewhat protected by the quicker conditions. Rublev’s ability to rush Ruud will be key, if the Russian is on his game he will win this match, but Ruud is no push over.
Prediction: Rublev in 3

Main Photo from Getty.


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