It all comes down to this; the second semifinal spot at the WTA Finals from the Chichén Itzá group will be determined by the winner of Monday’s clash between Aryna Sabalenka and Maria Sakkari. Sabalenka and Sakkari have shown mixed signs this week as both split their first couple of matches in Guadalajara. Sabalenka has dominated this match-up in recent times but has looked wayward at times this week. Will Sabalenka continue her head-to-head dominance of Sakkari, or will the Greek player be too solid on this occasion?
WTA Finals Day 6 Predictions
Aryna Sabalenka vs Maria Sakkari
H2H: Sabalenka 4-1
Top seed Aryna Sabalenka looked like anything but a top seed in her opening match of the week in Guadalajara. A wayward Sabalenka dropped ten consecutive games from 4-2 up in the first set against Paula Badosa, losing 4-6 0-6. The Belarusian produced an improved performance to outlast Iga Swiatek 2-6 6-2 7-5 in her second match, though. The World #2 was still far from convincing in her win over Swiatek. 16 double faults to her name was just one off the record number of double faults hit by anyone on tour in 2021. A similarly erratic serving performance is unlikely to lead to another victory against a quality opponent.
Maria Sakkari made a good start to her Guadalajara campaign when she defeated Swiatek 6-2 6-4. The 26-year-old was unable to make It back-to-back wins as she succumbed to a red-hot Paula Badosa 6-7 4-6 in a highly competitive clash. Sakkari’s forehand was especially errant in her loss to Badosa as she tried to overpower the Spaniard, a task many are finding difficult at the moment. Sakkari will be faced with a different test against Sabalenka, one she hasn’t dealt with successfully in recent times.
Sabalenka holds a dominant 4-1 record over Sakkari. The Belarusian has won their four most recent matches, all of which were on hard courts. Their latest encounter took place in Abu Dhabi at the start of the year, Sabalenka prevailed 6-3 6-2. Sabalenka twice defeated Sakkari in 2020, including a commanding 6-3 6-0 win in Doha. Their recent forms suggest that Sakkari will be much more competitive on this occasion.
The Prediction
I’m going to side with Sakkari here despite her concerning head-to-head record against Sabalenka. Sabalenka’s very best tennis is clearly a handful for Sakkari. I don’t think we are likely to see Sabalenka’s best tennis here. Errors spewed from the Sabalenka racquet in her loss to Badosa; double faults were a huge issue in her win over Swiatek. Sakkari has looked good this week, even her loss to Badosa. Sabalenka’s game looks vulnerable in the high-altitude conditions in Guadalajara, and Sakkari is playing solid enough tennis to exploit those fragilities and come out on top of this must-win clash.
Prediction: Sakkari in 3
Main Photo from Getty.
