ATP Hamburg Final Prediction – Filip Krajinovic vs Pablo Carreno Busta

Pablo Carreno Busta in action at the ATP Hamburg Open.

After an entertaining week of tennis at the ATP Hamburg Open, just two men remain in contention for the title in Germany. Both have played some excellent tennis so far this week and both will no doubt be determined to lift the title. But will it be Filip Krajinovic or Pablo Carreno Busta who comes out on top in Hamburg?

ATP Hamburg Final Prediction

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Filip Krajinovic

Head-to-head: Krajinovic 2-1 Carreno Busta

It will be Krajinovic’s fourth ATP final and the Serbian is still seeking his first title. He lost to Jack Sock at the ATP Masters 1000 event in Paris, then to Matteo Berrettini in Budapest, and to Denis Shapovalov in Stockholm. Krajinovic has long been one of the best players without a tour-level title and perhaps this will be the right moment to change that. Against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals, the 29-year-old scored just his second completed top 10 victory (Dominic Thiem, Cincinnati 2020). He blasted 26 backhand winners in that match and kept up that level for the semifinals against Laslo Djere, getting everything back and forcing errors out of his compatriot.

Trying to stop him will be Pablo Carreno Busta, who already has five ATP titles under his belt. Just like Krajinovic, he’s yet to win an event as prestigious as the ATP Hamburg Open and will also be feeling the pressure on Sunday afternoon. The Spaniard didn’t drop a single set in dispatching Carlos Taberner, Dusan Lajovic, and Federico Delbonis, which might end up being an advantage if the match goes the distance, especially as his status of the second seed also gave him a bye in the opening round, a privilege that Krajinovic didn’t have.

The Serbian won their only previous tour-level meeting in Stockholm two years ago, but that matchup should look a bit different on clay. On this surface, they met twice and split their meetings – Krajinovic won six years ago at the Braunschweig Challenger, while Carreno Busta triumphed eight years ago at a Challenger event in Poznan. The Spaniard has been going a bit under the radar this week and it’s Krajinovic who scored the huge upset over Tsitsipas. But in reality, he’s been playing just as well, also frustrating his opponents with his court coverage and excellent foot speed.

The two have a similar playstyle of relying on baseline rallies and sustained hitting from the ground, which should lead to a match that could be compared to a game of chess. The one who can construct the points better might just edge it and the advantage in that department is usually with the Spaniard. Furthermore, Krajinovic is known for flopping under pressure and it is no accident that he’s still lacking a tour-level title. It should be really tight, but odds are that his trophy wait might not be over just yet.

Prediction: Carreno Busta in 3

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